Q 2 2022
KEY INSIGHTS
N 80 % 36,785 sq m 2022 Q2 Take-Up 46,194 sq m E W S HOWTH 6 % 15 % SUBURBS 2,673 sq m 6,736 sq m DF RUI BNLGI NE (DUBLIN 3,6,7 and 8) DUBLIN CITY (DUBLIN 1,2 and 4)
OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
Last December we forecast Dublin office take-up of approximately 200,000 sq m in 2022. At the half-way point of the year 91,290 sq m has already been taken, and a further 120,000 sq m is reserved, leaving us on target to achieve this.
MALAHIDE
SWORDS
DUBLIN AIRPORT
PORTMARNOCK
full-year forecasts remain on-track, vacancy should rise to just over 11.6% by year end.
On the supply side, we predicted c.240,000 sq m of new office completions. Over 130,000 sq m has been delivered in H1 and, even allowing for some slippage in build programmes later in the year, our completions forecast is also looking accurate. As a result 2022 will be the strongest year for office completions since 2008. Although leasing activity is trending positively, absorption has not matched the pace of new office deliveries, causing the vacancy rate to rise. If our
COOLOCK
SANTRY
FINGLAS
SUTTON
BEAUMONT
The pick-up in vacancy has not prevented prime headline rents from rising strongly, and more upside can be expected before year-end as occupiers chase a limited number of modern, energy efficient offices. However increased competition will continue to impact on the older stock, where rising rent-frees are being observed.
KILBARRACK
DRUMCONDRA
CASTLEKNOCK
CLONTARF
CHAPELIZOD
BALLYFERMOT
DUBLIN CITY
RANELAGH
CRUMLIN
WALKINSTOWN
TERENURE
CLONSKEAGH
At the half-way point of the year 91,290 SQ M OF SPACE has already been taken and 120,000 SQ M IS RESERVED. This leaves us on course to achieve take up of 200,000 SQ M IN 2022.
The average office space-per-employee ratio has FALLEN by 9.8% in the last 18 MONTHS
BLACKROCK
DUNDRUM
DÚN LAOGHAIRE
TALLAGHT
STILLORGAN
RATHFARNHAM
GLENAGEARY
SANDYFORD
LEOPARDSTOWN
CARRICKMINES
CHERRYWOOD
CITY CENTRE
SUBURBS
Service sector employment growth has been exceptionally strong, and office leasing is on a broadly positive trend
Highest Rents Number of Deals Average Deal Size Typical Lease Break
€721 per sq m 60 Dawson Street, Dublin 2
€ 3 6 1 per sq m Suite 404, Q House, Sandyford, Dublin 18
Strong occupier demand, and the relative scarcity of ESG compliant buildings, have driven prime headline rents up by nearly 7% in the last year. However older buildings are facing less competition and this is keeping average rents in check
36
17
1,022 sq m
395 sq m
Agents are reporting up to 400,000 sq m. of outstanding office space requirements. Converting this into absorption will depend on how confident occupiers are to look-through current macro uncertainties, the impact of their hybrid strategies on space-per-employee ratios, and the extent to which those taking space are expanding or entering the market for the first time, rather than simply relocating
10 years
5 years
<500 SQ M 500 / 999 SQ M 1,000 / 1,999 SQ M 2,000 – 4,999 SQ M 5,000 – 9,999 SQ M >=10,000 SQ M
City Centre City Fringe
17
13
2
2
2
0
3
0
1
0
0
0
KEITH O'NEILL Executive Director & Head of Office Advisory, BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland
JOHN MCCARTNEY Director, Head of Research, BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland
Suburbs
13
3
1
0
0
0
6
7
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