PROVIDING NETWORKING OPPORTUNITIES
Latest Macroeconomic Updates Presented at The Chamber of Medford & Jackson County Forum Keynote Speaker: Robert Schell, Financial Analyst at US Bank - Sponsored by: US Bank
The state of the economy — including concerns about inflation, wages, the supply chain and labor markets — has been top of mind for businesses and consumers across the country. According to Robert Schell with U.S. Bank, the pandemic affected the economy in many ways, and while things are starting to normalize, there are still challenges ahead. Schell’s presentation provided a macroeconomic update, showing where things currently stand and what we could expect in 2023. He started with positive news that payroll growth continues to remain strong. “These numbers are above pre-pandemic levels,” he said. “Now we are moving past the recovery stage and into a more normal state.” Additionally, unemployment has dropped to 3.5%. However, the labor market is still very concerning. There are over 10 million unfilled job openings across the country. “Before the pandemic, we never saw numbers above eight million,” Schell said. He explained that people are not as involved in the labor market as they were previously. With 10 million job openings, only about five million people are looking for work. Also, wage growth has not kept up with inflation. Household buying power is declining because wages are not increasing as fast as prices; however, consumers
still have excess savings from the pandemic. Consumers’ savings increased during the pandemic and people put that money in the bank. Now, they are whittling away at that extra money as prices go up. Schell noted some important points regarding goods and services. He said that while inflation for goods has decreased, it has now become embedded in services. And while inflation has decreased slightly in the past 2-3 months, it remained high for most of 2022. He then addressed the role of the Fed, which is a collection of institutions. “The Fed has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices,” he said. Moving forward, Schell explained there are a few key issues to watch in 2023. It will be important to monitor monetary policy and see if inflation increases or decreases, and what will happen to wages. Many people also have concerns about a possible recession and the resiliency of the economy. They want to know if housing prices will go down or if this has become a new normal for the housing market. Lastly, consumer behavior will play an important role in the economy moving forward. “We want to see how consumers react and what they are able to do in this market.” n
12
The Business Review | January 2023
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online