9
[fig. 1]
THE UN’S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS FOR SOCIETY AND ECONOMY REST UPON A HEALTHY BIOSPHERE
We are part of Nature, not separate from it.
ECONOMY
The Dasgupta Review, February 2021
SOCIETY
AC COUNT I NG F O R B I OD I V E R S I T Y L O S S
BIOSPHERE
Biodiversity describes the enormous variety of life on Earth and can refer to every living thing in one region or ecosystem, including plants, bacteria, animals and humans. 1 Human well-being, culture and development depend on a resilient biosphere - the thin layer of ecosystems and biodiversity on planet Earth that supply essential ecosystem services. 2 Ecosystems and biodiversity are not something external to the economy or human societies, but rather the very foundation of civilisation. [fig. 1] The biodiversity crisis is upon us. Human actions have driven at least 680 vertebrate species to extinction since 1500. The global rate of species extinction in the 21st century is tens to hundreds of times higher than the natural rate over the past ten million years. 3 1970 to 2016 saw a 68% decline in known animal species 4 and more than one million known animal and plant species are now threatened with extinction. 5 22% of the world’s tropical and subtropical forests have been converted to agriculture. 6 The biodiversity crisis is not only a threat to those species and habitats, but to human civilisation. Reflecting this, the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2022 lists biodiversity loss in the top three most severe risks on a global scale over the next ten years, along with climate action failure and extreme weather. 7
BIODIVERSITY LOSS: BREACHING A PLANETARY BOUNDARY
The planetary boundaries framework is a conceptual tool pioneered in 2009 by the Stockholm Resilience Centre to define a “safe operating space for humanity” on planet Earth. 8 There are nine planetary boundaries representing limits on stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity and biomass, novel entities (e.g. chemicals, plastics), climate change, ocean acidification, freshwater use and change in the global hydrological cycle, changes in land use, the presence of nitrogen and phosphorus, and air pollution. A boundary is breached when we are operating beyond the bounds of safety. The risk of biodiversity decline is as grave a risk to human survival as climate change and is one of five boundaries considered to have been breached, along with climate change, land system change, changes to the global nitrogen cycle, and novel entities (man-made chemical compounds). According to the scientists at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, “transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental-scale to planetary-scale systems.” 9 [fig. 2]
Source: Stockholm Resilience Centre
BIOSPHERE INTEGRITY IS JUST ONE OF THE PLANETARY BOUNDARIES – AND WE MAY HAVE ALREADY GONE BEYOND THE ZONE OF UNCERTAINTY INTO A HIGH-RISK SITUATION
[fig. 2]
E/MSY
CLIMATE CHANGE
BILL (not yet quantified)
NOVEL ENTITIES (not yet quantified)
LAND-SYSTEM CHANGE
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION
FRESHWATER USE
ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL LOADING (not yet quantified)
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
P
1 National Geographic Society, Biodiversity, National Geographic Society, 23 August 2019. 2 Carl Folke et al., Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere, SpringerLink, 14 March 2021; Sandra Díaz et al., Assessing nature’s contributions to people, Science, 19 January 2018. 3 The Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity And Ecosystem Services, IPBES, December 2020. 4 Living Planet Report 2020,WWF, 2020. 5 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, IUCN, 2022. 6 Biodiversity and Climate Change Scientific Outcome, IPBES-IPCC, June 2021. 7 The Global Risks Report 2022,World Economic Forum, 2022.
N
BIOGEOCHEMICAL FLOWS
Below boundary (safe) In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk)
8 Johan Rockström et al., Ecology and Society: Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity, Ecology and Society, 2009. 9 Ibid.
Source: Stockholm Resilience Centre
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