18A — March 27 - April 9, 2015 — M id A tlantic
Real Estate Journal
CREW NJ February Monthly Meeting: “An Economic Forecast”
New Brunswick, NJ — The subject was “Where We are Heading in 2015, An Economic Forecast,” and for its February meeting, CREW NJ-Commercial Real Estate Women of New Jersey got an inside look at the state’s—and the nation’s—prospects for the year ahead. The event was held at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy in New Brunswick. Patricia Faulkner of Faulkner Architectural Studios coordinated the program and introduced the speakers Dr. James W. Hughes, Distinguished Professor and Dean of the Bloustein School, and Dr. Peter Linneman of Linneman Associates.” As to where are we in the business cycle? “The Great Recession lasted 18 months, ending in June 2009,” said Hughes. “The current expansion has been 68 months in length, 10 months longer than the average.” For New Jersey in particular, in the larger picture, “the macroeconomics have been an economic roller coaster. Since 1981, there have been four recessions and four expansions in the state,” Hughes noted. “Post-2000 has not been kind to the Garden State. The two large expansions in the ‘80s and ‘90s tower over the small expansions since 2000.” And while the state’s recovery trajectory in the first half of 2013 “was on pace for great growth, the ‘pause button’ was hit in July. Employment growth tanked at 19,800 jobs for the year instead of the projected 62,800 jobs. Growth for 2014 was merely 29,900 jobs.” Hughes noted that one thing holding New Jersey back in growth and develop- ment is the shrinking suburban office park footprint. “Corporate urbanism is on the rise,” attributed in part to corporations’ desire to attract and hire the mil- lennials. “The key now is repositioning properties,” Hughes pointed out, noting Hampshire Development’s acquisition and re-imagining of the Siemans building in Metropark as one example. As to the bottom line? “We have a growing national economy, a great age structure transformation, we have an aging suburban office market out of sync with millennials and corporate urbanism,” Hughes said. “Real estate developers need to salvage real estate diamonds in the rough.” As to what’s onn the national scene?, “a longer recovery than usual is expected,” said Linneman. “Housing and auto markets require confidence and capital, and are easy to forestall.” Among the trends: “Retail sales are at an all-time high, household net worth is at an all-time high, and the consumer confidence index is finally back to average partially because of how long the recovery has lasted.” As far as the “Linneman Real Estate Index,” again looking at the national picture, “big increases are coming. The biggest real estate lender are the banks, which have substantially more capital than they have previously had. Money has not been easy to get – stress resulted in the banks holding onto funds instead of lending.” The good news: “Money just stopped being hard to get—the lending capacity is there.” CREW NJ’s February philanthropy was Save a Mind, Give a Choice (SAM), a charitable effort of the Lewa Conservancy Education outreach in Kenya. This program provides education to orphans and rural poverty children within the Lewa Wildlife Conservancy. “Philanthropy continues to be a very important part of the CREW NJ mission,” said Karp. “We would like to thank all of you for your generous donations to this worthy cause.” CREW NJ is the New Jersey Chapter of CREW Network (Commercial Real Estate Network), which is dedicated to the advancement of women in commercial real estate. Membership organizations are comprised of nearly 9,000 members representing every discipline within the industry and are located in 73 chapters across North America. CREW Network seeks to influence the success of the commercial real estate industry by focusing on fulfilling four key initiatives: business development, leadership development, industry research and career outreach. Members rep- resent fields as diversified as accountants, architects, appraisers, asset/property managers, attorneys, consultants, developers, lenders, leasing and sales brokers, mortgage bankers/brokers, marketing specialists, market and investment ana- lysts, corporate real estate representatives and title/escrow officers. For more information on programming, sponsorship or membership, please contact CREW NJ at (609) 585-6871, via email or visit the website at www.crewnj.org. n
2015 BOARD OF DIRECTORS President Susan Karp, Esq., Cole Schotz firstname.lastname@example.org President-Elect Rebecca Machinga, CPA, WithumSmith + Brown email@example.com Treasurer Tara DelGavio, CPA, Cohn Reznick firstname.lastname@example.org Secretary Lory Karakashian, PE, CME , InSite Engineering, LLC Lory@InSiteEng.net Director - Membership Krista Korinis, Global Installation Resources, LLC email@example.com Director - philanthropy TinaMarie Cortina, Liberty Elevator Corporation firstname.lastname@example.org Director - Programming Tara Carver, Esq., Giordano Halleran & Ciesla P.C. email@example.com DIRECTOR - PUBLIC RELATIONS Colleen Logan, Sobel & Co., LLC firstname.lastname@example.org Director - Special projects Suzanne Bonney, AIA, Santander Global Facilities email@example.com Director - Sponsorship Jennifer Mazawey, Esq., Genova Burns
firstname.lastname@example.org Director - Sponsorship Diane Menard, Prestige Title Agency, Inc. email@example.com Counsel/Advisor Cheryl Hardt, CBRE Group, Inc.
firstname.lastname@example.org Counsel/Advisor Monica J. Ceres, Esq., Giordano, Halleran & Ciesla, P.C.
email@example.com Counsel/Advisor Patricia Riedel, CBRE Group, Inc.
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