like most of us, housing sales prefer kelowna in the summer Analysis of over two decades of MLS data in BC’s three biggest housing markets shows that Kelowna sees a higher proportion of annual sales activity in the summer. This July, Kelowna was the only market to see a month-over-month sales gain.
relatively higher share of annual sales in July, the Kelowna market remained the weakest of the three major markets in 2024. July sales were 27% below their prior 10-year July average (of 498), while sales in Vancouver and Victoria were 21% and 16% below average, respectively. New listings activity remained robust in July with 942 new homes coming to market, which was 14% above the prior 10-year July average (of 824). At 3,087, active MLS listings remained above the 3,000-mark for the second consecutive month (the first time since the summer of 2013) and were 39% above the prior 10-year July average (of 2,220). Overall, there were 8.6 months of inventory at month-end. With the Bank of Canada implementing its second 25-basis-point interest rate cut in July, and material declines in Government of Canada bond yields in recent months (which are key inputs into fixed mortgage rates in Canada), buyer purchasing power is slated to improve through the latter half of 2024 and into 2025. This won’t turn things around overnight, but hopefully it strikes a little more sunshine on Kelowna’s summer housing market.
It’s no secret that the Okanagan region is at its best in the summertime—fresh fruit, the lake, wine, and a whole lot of sunshine. This next stat may seem obvious then, but nevertheless, we found it pretty interesting: compared to Vancouver and Victoria, Kelowna sees a relatively higher proportion of its annual home sales in July, August, and September. We examined MLS data for the three markets between 2000 and 2023 and found that, on average, Kelowna leads all markets with 9.7% of its annual sales in July, 9.3% in August, and 8.4% in September, for a total of 27.4% of its annual sales in Q3 (versus 26.1% in Victoria and 24.7% in Vancouver). In contrast, Victoria sees relatively more activity in Q2 with 31.3% of its annual sales (versus 30.7% in Kelowna and 30.4% in Vancouver), and Vancouver sees relatively more activity in Q1 with 23.7% of its annual sales (versus 23.0% in Victoria and 22.1% in Kelowna). Despite these seasonal
variations between markets, most housing sales happen in the spring, and May is still the busiest month for all three. Victoria sees 10.6% of annual sales in May, on average, versus 10.5% in both Vancouver and Kelowna. Although it’s been an exceptionally challenging year for Kelowna’s housing market (for more details, check out this in-depth article we wrote “uncorking” Kelowna’s resale market in the first half of 2024) , July data continued to show signs that it is relatively more active than its peer markets in the summer. With 361 MLS sales in July, Kelowna was the only major market to see a month- over-month sales increase, up 0.8% from June (versus 4% declines in both Vancouver and Victoria). July sales accounted for 16.4% of total year-to-date sales in Kelowna versus 15.3% in Victoria and 14.1% in Vancouver.
Despite the June-to-July sales gain and a
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