spring hasn’t sprung in the okanagan Recent trends of lagging sales counts across the Central Okanagan carried on in March. And while overall market conditions continue to favour buyers, pockets of the market remain notably tight - particularly for lower-priced homes.
MOIs of 16.3 and 21.6, respectively, while the market for more affordable product remained markedly tighter. Second, it is also worth noting that March is still a bit early when taking into context the typical pattern for Central Okanagan housing market activity. Historically, sales reach their peak in May and June is the second busiest month. The relatively delayed start to spring sales activity might be especially relevant this year given the current macroeconomic situation and the expected trajectory of interest rates. Decelerating economic activity (from a per-capita perspective) and a deteriorating labour market, in conjunction with CPI inflation that has come in below 3% for two consecutive months, has economists forecasting Bank of Canada rate cuts by mid-year. After the Bank held its policy rate on April 10th, the next opportunity for a cut comes in June. That could be prompting many would-be home buyers to delay their purchases in anticipation of more favourable borrowing rates. Irrespective of what may or may not be coming on the interest rate front, it has no doubt been a slow start to spring in the Central Okanagan housing market.
As we move through March, and out of winter and into spring, there’s often an accompanying anticipation: of warmer weather and springtime activities. And while the season is also typically associated with more activity in real estate, the anticipation of spring has so far proved underwhelming for housing markets across BC. At 299 MLS sales in March, activity in the Central Okanagan was the softest among BC’s primary markets, down 24% year-over- year (from an already slow March 2023 at 396 sales) and 39% versus the past 10-year March average (488 sales). All told, this was the lowest March sales count for the region in over a decade. The sales slump occurred in tandem with rising inventory and, as such, the market continued to favour buyers across most home types and subareas. At 2,409 active MLS listings, inventory across the Central Okanagan closed the month up 33% year-
over-year (from 1,805 listings in March 2023) and 29% above its past-decade March average (1,872 listings). Months of inventory (MOI) for detached homes (8.9) and condos (8.0) continued to favour buyers, while the townhome market was considered balanced with an MOI of 6.1. Two observations from the Central Okanagan market deserve additional commentary. First off, in the context of the broader housing affordability crisis nationally, the market for lower-priced homes remained considerably tight in March. The vast majority of detached home sales fell in the sub-$1 million price range resulting in an MOI of 3.7 at month-end. In contrast, a surplus of more expensive detached homes saw MOI for listings in the $2 million plus range reach 33.1. Similarly, higher priced townhomes (above $900,000) and condos (above $600,000) remained firmly in buyers’ market territory with
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