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Powering the sustainable aviation revolution: New report sets out the complex journey to net zero Atkins aerospace experts predict 44,000TWh of energy will be needed annually by 2070 to produce new, sustainable aviation fuel: equivalent to almost double the world’s current electricity demand.
A new report by sustainable aerospace experts at Atkins, a member of the SNC- Lavalin Group, warns achieving 2050 net zero targets in the sector will require major sustainable energy and fuel production infrastructure changes if commercial air transport grows as currently predicted. In the white paper - Alternative Fuels for Sustainable Aviation – Atkins emphasises that the journey to net zero extends far beyond aircraft emissions. Acknowledging that the most effective solution to decarbonising the aviation sector will be using a mix of alternative fuel options – SAF, eFuel, Hydrogen and batteries - the report warns that the industry also needs to be prepared for the significant infrastructure implications brought about by utilising this mix of alternative fuel. It also highlights the significant impact on future energy demand required to produce them. Based on estimated energy efficiencies and this forecasted fuel mix, Atkins’ predict 44,000 TWh of energy per year will be required by 2070 to generate the necessary global aircraft fuel demand. This represents a 5700% increase from current aviation energy generation requirements and is almost double the world’s current electricity demand. The report goes on to stress that the scale of change required will be substantial and far more complex than systems currently in operation. Alongside energy generation, other considerations will need to be factored into future plans, from fuel transportation and storage requirements to vehicle charging infrastructure. Andrew Caughey, Sustainable Aviation Lead – Aerospace, Atkins says: “Aviation emissions are hard to abate, but not impossible. The sector is making huge strides in its efforts to accelerate the development of new fuels and aircraft that will help deliver zero emission flight. These advances have a wider impact beyond the aerospace industry. Whilst the future mix of low carbon alternative fuel is yet to be determined, the production, storage
and transportation of fuels has implications for energy and airport infrastructure and their emissions need to be considered across the whole lifecycle, from ‘source to force’. “Regions, governments, airports and the wider industry must adopt a holistic approach to scenario modelling when creating masterplans for the infrastructure and ecosystems that will drive the future of sustainable aviation. By understanding the full fuel mix and energy demands for sustainable aviation, governments can use the insight to inform their policy makers and actions – whether that be introducing emissions KPIs, green fuel subsidies, demand management or investing in innovation and development. Integrated system-level planning is vitally important in achieving the transition and must take into account future energy predictions.” Atkins used analysis and modelling based on the sector’s current growth trajectory, future energy demands and energy generation efficiencies to explore the implications for aviation in achieving net zero. This included creating scenarios to explore the potential contribution of each alternative fuel, based on the energy demands of different aircraft classes. Atkins modelled a low and high energy generation scenario to forecast potential energy requirements - from a low scenario of 35,700TWh per year fuelled primarily by SAF and hydrogen to a high energy scenario of 54,400TWh per year, where synthetic eFuel is more dominant in narrow- and wide-body aircraft. This scenario modelling is based on global demand, but can be applied to any geographic region or specific airport to determine energy supply and infrastructure requirements. By adding in any changes to fuel mix or legislative demands, the model can forecast the generation energy requirement and identify the relative need for SAF, hydrogen, eFuels and batteries.
The Alternative Fuels for Sustainable Aviation report goes on to explore the viability and availability of low carbon fuel sources and how this will change over time. Key outtakes include: • Blended approach – no one technology is feasible alone. To use 100% eFuel would require energy generation of 63,000TWh per year, and while using battery power would require only 20,000TWh of energy
BAE Systems has received a prototype ECRS Mk2 (European Common Radar System Mk2) from Leonardo, marking the latest milestone in the ongoing development programme for the UK Typhoon fleet. BAE Systems has received a prototype European Common Radar System Mk2
generation per year, the limitations of battery technology would make this impossible over the time horizon considered.
• Availability of energy and volumes used – Volumes required will be largely influenced by the alternative fuel route being followed and the availability of said fuels, which remains uncertain. Producing the quantities required will be a substantial challenge. The only certainty is that demand for all types of fuel will be significant. (See Fig 2 in the notes to editors for a breakdown on the viability of each fuel type) • The impact of innovation - The combination of low carbon fuels used will change over time as technology develops. For instance, battery technology could see a breakthrough in power density, making it more viable for larger aircraft classes earlier. Moreover, the capacity to generate eFuel at higher volumes could reduce the need for SAF sourced from waste products. Breakthroughs in aircraft technology supporting hydrogen powered flight could lead to an accelerated roll-out of hydrogen into widebody aircraft.
The radar will now undergo integration work and ground-based testing in preparation for its first flight tests on-board the Eurofighter Typhoon next year. This will take place at BAE Systems’ flight testing facility in Lancashire, United Kingdom. The ECRS Mk2 features an innovative multi- functional array (MFA) that can perform both traditional radar functions such as search and targeting, as well as electronic warfare tasks. This means that Eurofighter Typhoon will be able to locate and deny use of an adversary’s radar with a powerful electronic jamming attack, whilst staying beyond the reach of threats. “This delivery marks the next major step towards securing Typhoon’s place in the future battlespace, ensuring that the UK retains the freedom to deliver air power wherever and whenever it is needed. The ECRS Mk2 will equip RAF pilots with the ability to locate, identify and suppress enemy air defences, a powerful combination of capabilities that will increase the Eurofighter Typhoon’s lethality and survivability, and the survivability of other friendly forces.” Mark Stead, SVP Radar & Advanced Targeting, Leonardo UK
Richard Hamilton, Typhoon Programme Director, Europe – BAE Systems Air, said:
With a view to potential future adoption of the ECRS Mk2, Leonardo in Italy is also contributing to the development, with engineers from Leonardo’s Nerviano, Milan- based radar site having joined the team in Edinburgh. As a step towards Italy’s full participation in the ECRS Mk2 programme, this collaboration will enable acquiring system design capabilities that will ensure that the Italian MOD has sovereign control over the new radar system at every stage of its operational life. In addition to their partnership to deliver the ECRS Mk2, Leonardo UK and BAE Systems are also core members of the UK’s team to deliver the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a partnership between the UK, Italy and Japan which will bring a sixth-generation combat aircraft into service in 2035. The firms’ involvement in both programmes will create opportunities to develop technology and skills from the ECRS Mk2 into the GCAP platform’s suite of advanced electronics, and vice versa, de-risking and accelerating both programmes.
“The ECRS Mk2 radar is one of a number of key capabilities which we are integrating to secure Typhoon’s as the backbone of air defence across the globe for decades to come.” “Together with enhanced mission systems, advanced sensors, weapons and displays, we are delivering a sovereign capability which will keep RAF pilots safe and ensure the UK has the skills to continue to mature key technologies which support its future combat air ambitions.” The new radar is eagerly anticipated as it will further enhance the superb capabilities of Typhoon and keep it at the leading edge of combat air for years to come.” Group Captain Matthew D’Aubyn, Air Capability Typhoon Programme Director, UK Ministry of Defence The overall Typhoon programme supports more than 20,000 highly-skilled jobs across the UK. The work developing the ECRS Mk2 is securing 600 roles including more than 300 at Leonardo’s site in Edinburgh, 100 in Luton and 120 at BAE Systems in Lancashire. With the new radar and a wider package of enhancements for Typhoon being funded by the UK MOD, the combined programme is expected to sustain up to 1,300 jobs in the UK.
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plane talk summer 2023
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plane talk summer 2023
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