San Francisco Real Estate December 2025 Report with market data through November
The real estate market began its usual mid-winter holiday season slowdown in November, marked by a substantial decline in both listing and sales activity. This contraction typically speeds up through December - normally the year's slowest month - before the market begins to wake up in mid-January. As illustrated within this report, by virtually every indicator – prices, inventory, overbidding, speed of sale – the San Francisco market this past fall saw a stunning surge in demand, which we ascribe to the accelerating AI startup boom in the city. San Francisco now has one of the most heated markets in the country. Our focus now shifts toward the New Year's market. In the past, the beginning of the year frequently ushered in a substantially higher level of activity that continued to build into spring. This occurred in early 2025 until affected by the "tariff shock" and subsequent economic reactions, initiating a significant slowdown in April. In the broader financial landscape, the first week of December saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq largely recover from their substantial declines in November; and the 30-year mortgage rate was close to a 14-month low. While consumer confidence showed a modest rise from November, it remains very low by long-term standards – but this does not seem to be impacting the SF market. Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision regarding an end-of-year benchmark-rate reduction, and the subsequent inflation report due later in the month.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
San Francisco Home Sales Breakdown Number of Sales by Property Type & Bedroom Count*
12 Months MLS Sales* Selected major property configurations
467
521
Median Sales Prices
4+ BR Condo Sales
110
2-4 Unit Bldg. Sales
2-BR House Sales
2-BR Houses - $1,290,000
3-BR Houses - $1,650,000
570
918
4-BR Houses - $2,305,000
3-BR Condo Sales
3-BR House Sales
5+ BR Houses - $2,850,000
1-BR Condos - $740,000
2-BR condos constitute the highest number of sales.
2-BR Condos - $1,225,000
2-BR Condo Sales
4-BR House Sales
3-BR Condos - $1,700,000
1114
544
4+ BR Condos - $1,985,000
2-4 Unit Bldgs - $1,700,000
1-BR Condos
245
5+ BR House Sales
714
*Condo sales include co-ops and TICs.
Does not include sales unreported to MLS, including many new-project condo sales.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance through mid-November 2025. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Selected major property configurations. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco HOUSE Price Trends since 1990 Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling
The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in November 2025, $1,800,000, spiked up from October to its highest point since 2022, rising about 9% year-over-year. On a single-month basis (not 3-month-rolling) the median house sales price in November rose 15% year over year.
2022
$2,000,000
2025
$1,800,000
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Median sales prices typically peak for the year in spring.
2024
2018
2023
$1,600,000
Pandemic hits ▲
$1,400,000
Interest rates soar ▲
$1,200,000
2007
$1,000,000
High-tech/IPO boom
$800,000
$600,000
Great recession
$400,000
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
$200,000
Updated through November 2025
$-
3-month rolling average of monthly median sales prices for “existing” houses, per CA Association of Realtors or 3-month rolling median per NorCal MLS Alliance. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco’s Biggest House Sales of the Year* As reported to MLS
Sales Price Neighborhood Bedrooms
Square Footage
$/Sq.Ft.
Lot Size (Acres)
Year Built
$26,500,000 Pacific Heights
4
10,180
$2603
.18
1987
$19,000,000 Presidio Heights
5
9984
$1903
.14
1928
$18,100,000 Sea Cliff
6
10,961
$1651
.39
1926
$17,750,000 Pacific Heights
10
11,155
$1591
.13
1899
$16,800,000 Cow Hollow
5
7035
$2388
.11
1906
$16,750,000 Pacific Heights
6
6105
$2744
.10
1910
$16,500,000 Clarendon Heights 6
7440
$2218
.12
2018
$14,000,000 Pacific Heights
5
7288
$1921
.09
1908
$13,250,000 Pacific Heights
4
6685
$1982
.12
1927
$13,000,000 Telegraph Hill
5
5725
$2271
.18
1996
*2025 sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/5/25. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Square footage and $/sq.ft. are calculated on interior, livable space only, and does not include storage, garages, decks or lot size. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
The 3-month-rolling median 2-bedroom condo sales price in November 2025, $1,297,500, surged to its highest point since 2022, rising about 6.5% year over year.
San Francisco CONDO Price Trends since 2005 Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Price, 3-Month Rolling
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes. Looking specifically at 2-bedroom condos helps to ensure that price trends are comparing apples to apples.
2022
2019
$1,400,000
2017
2025
$1,300,000
2023 - 2024
Pandemic hits ▲
$1,200,000
Interest rates soar ▲
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
$900,000
2007-2008
Foreclosure crisis & great recession
$800,000
$700,000
Updated through November 2025
$600,000
3-month rolling median condo sales prices reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
The 3-month-rolling median $/sq.ft. house value in November 2025 rose about 7.5% year over year; the median condo value rose about 3.5%.
San Francisco Value Trends since 2005 3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
2022
$1,200
Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
$1,100
2025
2024
2023
$1,000
$900
Condos
$800
Houses
2005-2006-2007-2008
$700
$600
$500
$400
Great recession & foreclosure crisis
$300
Updated through November 2025
$200
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown 12-Month-Rolling, Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices since 2005*
Comparing median 2-bedroom condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, new- condo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – the blue line – with the rest of San Francisco ( mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – the green line.
2018
2022
$1,400,000
2016
$1,300,000
Pandemic hits ▲
$1,200,000
2023 - 24 - 2025
Median sales prices also vary widely within these two broad regions.
$1,100,000
Condo Market in Non-Downtown Area
$1,000,000
Greater Downtown/SoMa Condo Market
2007-2008
$900,000
$800,000
NOTE: 12-month-rolling sales data smooths the median sales price trend lines and removes seasonality from the analysis, but it can lag short-term changes in 2025 .
$700,000
Great recession, foreclosure crisis
Updated through November 2025
$600,000
*12-month rolling median condo sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. Does not include new-project sales unreported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco’s Biggest Condo & Co-op Sales of the Year* As reported to MLS
Sales Price Neighborhood Type
Bedrooms
Square Footage
$/Sq.Ft.
Year Built
$24,000,000 Pacific Heights
Co-op
3
5700
$4211
1924
$15,000,000 Pacific Heights
Co-op
3
5360
$2799
Not given
$9,990,000 Pacific Heights
Condo
4
3961
$2522
Not given
$9,500,000 Pacific Heights
Co-op
3
3333
$2850
1925
$9,250,000 Yerba Buena
Condo
3
4242
$2181
2021
$9,100,000 South Beach
Condo
3
2974
$3060
2021
$9,000,000 Yerba Buena
Condo
2
5009
$1797
Not given
$8,800,000 Yerba Buena
Condo
3
3590
$2451
2021
$8,750,000 Yerba Buena
Condo
3
4242
$2063
2021
$8,000,000 Russian Hill
Co-op
1
2645
$3025
1962
*2025 sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 12/5/25. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Square footage and $/sq.ft. are calculated on interior, livable space only, and does not include storage, garages, decks or lot size. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
New Listings Coming on Market San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
As is the common seasonal trend, the number of new listings continued to plummet in November – and will typically hit its nadir in December. The number of new listings typically climbs through spring, declines in mid-summer, soars in September, and plunges in December.
Sept. 2021
1,200
Spring 2022
Sept. 2022
Sept. 2023
Sept. 2024
Spring 2021
1,000
Sept. 2025
Spring 2024
Spring 2025
800
Spring 2023
600
Mid- summer
Mid- summer
400
Mid- summer
Mid- summer
Mid- summer
200
Updated through November 2025
0
*Listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Homes Market Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1 st of Month*
The number of listings for sale on 12/1/25 fell substantially from the previous month and plunged 35% year over year. 25% of listings were houses, 60% condos, 9% TICs, 5% co- ops, and 1% townhouses. Listing inventory typically continues to plummet within December.*
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
200
Updated December 1, 2025
0
* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condos not listed on MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.
San Francisco Homes for Sale # of Listings by Days on Market, 12/2/25*
► December is typically the month when buyers can negotiate most aggressively, especially on listings with longer days on market.
155
Active Listings over 90 Days on Market by Price Segment* • Under $1,000,000 101 of 303 listings • $1m to $1,999,999 44 of 166 listings • $2m to $2,999,999 18 of 61 listings • $3m to $4,999,999 19 of 45 listings • $5,000,000+ 15 of 42 listings
As of 12/2/25, 57% of active listings have been on the market for over 2 months without selling; 32% for over 3 months; and 15% for over 6 months.*
140
123
120
95
100
87
80
80
62
60
53
50
40
As new listings dwindle, older, unsold listings come to dominate inventory during the mid-winter holidays.
20
0
Coming Soon
Up to 15 Days on Market
16 to 30 Days
31 to 60 Days
61 to 90 Days
91 to 120 Days
121 to 180 Days
181+ Days on Market
*Active/coming-soon listings posted to NorCal Alliance on 12/2/2025. Cumulative days on market as active listings. “Coming soon” are not yet active listings. Not all properties for sale are listed on MLS. This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Listing counts change constantly. All numbers approximate.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Demand, as measured by the number of listings going into contract, typically climbs through spring, declines in summer, rebounds in early fall, and plunges in December. Sales activity in SF is being constrained by the number of homes available to buy. After soaring in September and October, the number of listings going into contract dropped back in November but rose about 10% year over year.
March 2022
Oct. 2021
700
Interest rates soar
Sept.-Oct. 2025
600
May 2025
Oct. 2024
Spring 2024
500
Spring 2023
Oct. 2022
Oct. 2023
400
Summer
Summer
300
Summer
December
Summer
200
December
December
December
Updated through November 2025
100
Residential activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Will not include new-project condo activity not reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers San Francisco: Absorption Rate by Month
Fall 2025
Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.
30%
The SF market shifted dramatically in fall 2025.
Spring 2022
25%
Spring 2025
Spring 2023
Spring 2024
October
20%
October
October
15%
10%
5%
Updated through November 2025
0%
*SFARMLS reported data, per Broker Metrics. Not all new-condo project activity is reported to MLS. Last month’s data estimated using available data and may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision . All numbers approximate.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
Monthly Home Sales Volume* San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of sales in November 2025 fell back from October and was essentially unchanged year over year. Sales are being constrained by the low inventory of listings for sale. House sales made up approximately 46.5% of November 2025 sales; condos made up 45%; co- ops, 1.5%; and TICs, 7%.
June 2021
800
Fall 2021
Spring 2022
700
Oct. 2025
600
Spring 2024
Pandemic boom
Oct. 2024
Spring 2025
500
Spring 2023
Oct. 2023
400
300
200
100
▲ Interest rates soar
Updated through November 2025
0
*Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Sales Prices of $5,000,000+
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The market for luxury homes fluctuates by season, with spring and fall typically the most active markets of the year.
June 2021
Fall 2021
25
Oct. 2025
In October 2025, San Francisco had its highest monthly number of $5 million+ home sales in 4 years. Sales dropped back in November 2025 – as is the usual seasonal dynamic – but were the highest month-of-November count since 2021.
Spring 2022
20
May 2025
Spring 2024
Oct. 2024
| Peak of pandemic boom |
15
Oct. 2023
Oct. 2022
Spring 2023
10
5
Updated through November 2025
0
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal demand trends, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier. Overbidding is generally caused by buyer competition for new listings. The overall overbidding percentage in the latest month was 62% of sales (up from 51% in November 2024), but for houses alone, it was 82%, and for condos, 44%.
April 2022
Fall 2021
75%
More overbidding ▲
Nov. 2025
May 2024
Oct. 2024
May 2025
65%
2020 pandemic market
June 2023
Oct. 2023
55%
Mid- Winter
45%
35%
Mid- Winter
Mid- Winter
Mid- Winter
Mid- Winter
Updated through November 2025
25%
Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage San Francisco Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
This statistic can be distorted by strategic underpricing strategies by listing agents.
This chart illustrates the average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage for all residential sales: 8% over list price, the highest overbid % since mid-2022. But overbidding has been more common and dramatic for house sales than for condo sales: For houses alone in November 2025, the average was 16% above list price, and for condos, 1.5% over list price.
April 2022
Spring-Autumn 2021
110%
Nov. 2025
Spring 2025
Spring 2024
105%
Spring-Autumn 2023
Pandemic Year 1
100%
100% = an average sales price at original list price.
Updated through November 2025
95%
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
This chart illustrates average days on market for all residential sales (42 days in November 2025, down from 48 in November 2024). But for houses alone, the average was 26 days, and for condos, 55 days.
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Homes usually sell fastest in spring and early autumn – with the rush of new listings – and slowest in mid-winter (when the inventory of listings is at its oldest). Houses, on average, sell much faster than condos, co-ops and TICs.
80
Jan. 2024
Jan. 2025
70
Jan. 2021
Jan. 2023
Jan. 2022
60
50
40
Spring 2023
Spring 2024
Spring 2025
30
Spring 2021
Spring 2022
Updated through November 2025
20
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
A screen shot of a map
AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Selected Economic Indicators
Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023-2025 YTD 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on December 4, 2025, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate was 6.19%, very close to its 14-month low.
7.8
7.6
The Fed’s next decision regarding another benchmark rate reduction is due 12/10/25.
7.4
7.2
Jan. 2025
Fed’s 2025 rate cuts
Fed begins reducing its benchmark rate.
7.0
Jan. 2024
6.8
6.6
Jan. 2023
6.4
6.2
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
6.0
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Financial Markets, 2024 – 2025 YTD Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/24
10/29/25 ▼
60%
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/24
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/24
50%
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
40%
30%
Updated through 12/5/25
▲ 2025 begins
20%
▲ Election
Tariff shock ►
10%
0%
Data per MarketWatch.com. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate. Financial markets can be prone to significant volatility even on a short-term basis.
VIX Volatility Index* By Day in 2025
55
50
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia
45
40
35
Tariff shock ►
30
25
20
15
10
Updated 12/5/25
5
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) Ratio* By Month since January 1985
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
50
1999-2000
45
2025
40
Dotcom bubble
2021
As of December 1, 2025, the CAPE ratio is at its highest reading since the dotcom bubble.
Pandemic boom
35
2018
▲ Tariff shock
30
2007
Historical average since 1985
25
Pandemic hits
20
Dotcom crash
1987
Financial markets crash
15
2008-2010
Updated December 1, 2025
10
*Source: Robert Shiller, https://shillerdata.com/. Reading are sometimes subsequently revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be considered approximate.
Bitcoin Price By Day since March 7, 2024
10/6/25 ▼
$130,000
$120,000
$110,000
$100,000
$90,000
▲ 2025 begins
$80,000
Tariff shock ►
Updated through 12/5/25
$70,000
▲ Election
$60,000
March 2024
$50,000
Data per https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/cryptocurrency/btc/historical. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Cryptocurrency values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage. Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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