RETAIL FORECASTS REPORT 2021 | BDO LLP
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The crucial Black Friday-to-Christmas period of 2020 will more than ever depend on retailers’ abilities to attract consumers online and fulfil large numbers of orders for home delivery.
CHRISTMAS 2020 The crucial Black Friday-to-Christmas period of 2020 will more than ever depend on retailers’ abilities to attract consumers online and fulfil large numbers of orders for home delivery. Black Friday has seen Christmas shopping start earlier and earlier in recent years. This has once more been the case in 2020, as shoppers look to work within budgets, be organised and give plenty of time for orders to arrive, and retailers offer deals in an attempt to tempt consumers into spending. Although with Lockdown two keeping stores closed for much of November and early December, even more of this activity than usual will now occur exclusively online. In a worst-case scenario, even when open, consumers are likely to operate with extreme caution for fear of getting ill or having to isolate over the festive period. Combined with uncertainty about the economy and personal finances, store-based retail is therefore set to be in for a difficult period and is unlikely to see anything like the same degree of uplift typically experienced in the fourth quarter.
In contrast, depending on just how restricted stores are, online sales could be looking at anywhere from 30-50% year-on-year growth. This will place huge pressure on online delivery infrastructure. Retailers and their logistical partners will have to plan and allocate resources carefully and encourage consumers to shop early and take steps such as sending gifts directly (rather than to self and then sending on). In November Tesco had to place online shoppers into queues for delivery slots as, despite its massive capacity expansion in 2020, demand became overwhelming. As we approach the festive period other retailers are likely to withdraw rapid and next-day delivery promises to allow them to meet the increased demand, even as delivery firms such as Yodel and Citysprint recruit thousands of new couriers. One positive for retailers, however, is that with the majority of consumers spending more time at home they are at least more flexible about exactly when they are able to receive deliveries. Indeed, Christmas 2020 is set to be all about the home – shopping from home, delivery to homes, eating at home, and spending on homes, as consumers look to improve the environments in which they are now spending so much of their lives.
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