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BDO LLP | RETAIL FORECASTS REPORT 2021
2020 GROWTH BY CATEGORY AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
While the recent announcement of a potentially highly effective vaccine means that 2021 generally looks much brighter, it still promises to be another turbulent year. Only by looking at the impact of COVID-19 on 2020, on everything from channel performance, to consumer behaviour, to the restrictions placed on businesses, to supply chains, to the economy and housing market, can we then begin to understand what 2021 (which will also see us begin a radically different relationship with the EU) and beyond may look like for retailers and consumer focussed businesses.
The Path to Recovery and ‘Normalisation’ 2020 Retail Growth Rates and 5 Year Forecast With High And Low Growth Scenarios
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
4.5
3.9
2.2 1.0 3.0
2.4 3.0
1.0 2.6 3.0
0.9 2.0
1.0
0.2
-1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0
-1.5
-3.6
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
High Growth Scenario
Base forecast
Low Growth Scenario
Source: GlobalData
High Growth Scenario: Assumes comprehensive EU Trade Deal, ongoing government stimulus measures and, between vaccines and other interventions, COVID-19 related restrictions are removed in the middle of the year, leading to a strong bounce back in consumer confidence. Base Scenario: Assumes a limited scope UK-EU trade deal is agreed and augmented with sector-related deals in the months and years to come. Government stimulus is gradually withdrawn and COVID-19 related interventions allowing for a gradual easing of restrictions from the middle of the year. Low Growth Scenario: Assumes no UK-EU Trade deal and a failure to produce a significant vaccine or other effective interventions to combat COVID-19, meaning major restrictions continue to come and go and consumer confidence remains in the doldrums.
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