RETAIL FORECASTS REPORT 2021 | BDO LLP
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While the overall picture for retail in 2020 looks bleak, with a 3.6% fall in revenues, beneath the headline number lies a huge spread of performances. Physical stores and discretionary sectors that were significantly impacted by the direct and indirect effect of the restrictions, such as clothing, beauty, and big-ticket home items, saw much bigger declines than 3.6%. In contrast, online retailers and retailers of food and several other niche categories, were faced with unprecedented opportunities. While the overall picture for retail in 2020 looks bleak, with a 3.6% fall in revenues, beneath the headline number lies a huge spread of performances. Despite the fallout of the pandemic, including rising unemployment and the need to pay down the public debt through tax rises and/or spending cuts, 2021 offers the possibility of a spending bounce-back, especially if COVID-19 can be definitively brought under control and the public are released from the restrictions of the lockdowns intermittently imposed throughout this year. Globaldata forecasts that, including food, retail expenditure in 2021 will slightly exceed 2019, by £1bn, at £339.6bn. With the EU trade deal also still in the balance, the risks are certainly heavily stacked on the downside. But if 2020, has shown anything it is that some sectors and retailers can continue to find growth even in torrid conditions.
2019 % GROWTH
2020 % GROWTH
2021 % GROWTH
CATEGORY Total retail
1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.2 2.6 0.4 1.6
-3.6 -11.0 26.5 10.1 -25.8
3.9
Health & Beauty Entertainment* Food & Grocery
11.3 -6.7 -5.3 28.7
Clothing & Footwear
Homewares
-4.5
4.8
Furniture & Floor coverings
-10.7
12.5
DIY & Gardening
1.7
1.7 1.2
Electricals
3.1
-1.6
Books, News & Stationery
0.4 1.5
1.6
-0.5
Other**
-13.8
8.8
* Entertainment includes music, video and video game software, with the latter category driving 2020 growth ** Other includes a range of products, such as Toys & Games, Jewellery, Sports Equipment and Musical Instruments Source: GlobalData, Retail
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