THE 2025 CHICAGO
REAL ESTATE MARKET BRIEF AND 2026 FORECAST
THE BIG STORY: CHICAGO LEADS THE NATION Here’s the headline: Chicago is currently the highest appreciating major metro in the United States. While cities like Austin, Tampa, Phoenix, and Miami face inventory surpluses and declining prices, Chicago has emerged as the standout performer. Nationally, inventory hit 1 million active listings—the highest since 2019. Average days on market returned to a pre-pandemic normal at 63 days. Twenty percent of listings reduced prices. Builders are offering major incentives—41% cut prices, and Lennar devoted 14% of home prices to concessions. Zillow reported affordability reached a three-year high in 2025.
2 THE 2025 CHICAGO REAL ESTATE MARKET BRIEF & 2026 FORECAST
CHICAGO METRO AREA IN 2025
Median Price Home (year-over-year) 7.1%
Closed Sales 2.7% Days on Market 56
Median Price $380K
Inventory 5.8%
CITY OF CHICAGO IN 2025
Median Price Single-Family Homes (year-over-year) 7.8%
Median Price Condos (year-over-year) 5.8%
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2025 CHICAGO REAL ESTATE MARKET RECAP & 2026 FORECAST
THE LUXURY MARKET EXPLODE
Chicago’s luxury market had a record year with 138 transactions above $4M by November— eclipsing 2023’s record of 136. Downtown luxury condos are experiencing a resurgence. At One Chicago, an $8.93 million sale set the building’s record. At Cirrus in Lakeshore East, 60% of 2025 contracts went to second-home buyers. Gold Coast, Streeterville, and River North saw renewed activity in the $500K-$3 million range. Brokers reported 17 showings per day versus the usual 10. But luxury inventory over $2 million dropped 48.1%, creating scarcity that’s driving competition. Key Advantage: Chicago is increasingly viewed as a climate- safe investment haven. Buyers are moving money from coastal markets plagued by fires, hurricanes, and insurance crises.
T
ES
FOR BU
You’re buying in the highest appreciating metro in the country. That 8% appreciation isn’t slowing down. Every month you wait potentially costs you in both purchase price and equity. The Rate Reality Mortgage rates currently range from 6% to 6.2%. If rates drop below 6% and stay there, we will see a feeding frenzy. Pent-up demand from two years of sidelined buyers will flood the market simultaneously. Inventory is already 5.8% below last year. When rates hit sub-6%, competition will intensify, multiple offers will return, and prices will accelerate even faster. Acting before rates drop below 6% might be smarter—less competition, more negotiating power, and you can refinance later. Waiting for the “perfect” rate could mean paying significantly more in a bidding war.
IN
Strategy by Area The typical Chicago down payment is $50,000. My network of mortgage professionals knows every program and product to help you get into your home. In the past five years, Chicago homebuyers gained approximately $100,000 in equity on average. UYERS N 2026 UPTOWN AND EDGEWATER Best value—urban convenience, Red Line access, under $400K ANDERSONVILLE Village feel, faster sales velocity, higher price points DOWNTOWN LUXURY CONDOS Genuine value opportunities. Limited new construction means supply tightens further in 2026.
FOR SELL ERS IN 2026
You’re selling in the strongest Chicago market in years. If rates drop below 6%, seller conditions improve dramatically—pent-up buyer demand will create competitive environments we haven’t seen since 2021.
Pricing is critical. Days on market are normal at 56 days. Overpriced homes sit. Well-priced homes move.
By Location ANDERSONVILLE
UPTOWN Highest velocity—36 days to sale. Infrastructure improvements are your selling point.
Seller’s market. Homes move in 33 days. Price right for multiple offers. EDGEWATER Broadest buyer pool. Emphasize walkability, transit, lakefront proximity.
LUXURY ($1M+) Longer sales cycles but serious buyers are active. The top six residential sales in early 2025 were all downtown condos.
Present impeccably. Condition matters. Move-in ready properties command premiums. Homes needing substantial work experience longer market times. I have contractors and designers who can help you make strategic improvements that increase value.
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THE RENT VS. BUY REAL ITY
E T . Y L Y
Here’s what consumers hear: renting is cheaper than mortgage payments in 50 of the largest metros. Here’s what you need to know: everyone who lives indoors pays a mortgage. The question is whether you’re paying yours or your landlord’s.
First American’s data: If you bought in 2006 and stayed, home- ownership put $181,000 in your pocket. Renting cost you $268,000.
You’re considering this in the highest appreciating metro in the United States. The equity gains available to Chicago homeowners right now are exceptional. The biggest misconception? Most Americans think it takes 20% down to buy. It doesn’t. Having the right mortgage professional who knows actual products available—not just conventional wisdom— makes all the difference.
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2026 FORE CAST
Consensus among economists: 10-15% growth in transactions. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS® predicts measurable sales increases from slightly better mortgage rates and pent-up demand. The Chicago Setup:
Continued 2-3% price appreciation projected Limited inventory keeps competition strong
Logan Square, Humboldt Park, Bronzeville, Uptown positioned for growth Luxury market maintains momentum as new construction remains limited
Climate-safe investment destination attracts coastal buyers If rates drop below 6%, expect 15-20% transaction surge
Following a decade of decline, Chicago is experiencing population growth again per Census Bureau estimates. Combined with climate migration trends, this bodes well for long-term demand.
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THE 2025 CHICAGO REAL ESTATE MARKET BRIEF & 2026 FORECAST
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THE BOT TOM LINE
You are buying or selling in the highest appreciating major metro in the country. That’s data, not hype. The opportunity to build wealth through Chicago real estate is as strong as it’s been in years. Buyers: If you wait for rates below 6%, you’ll compete with every other buyer who had the same idea—driving prices higher. Act now with less competition. Sellers: Proper pricing and preparation matter. Well-positioned properties move quickly in this momentum market. If rates drop below 6% while you’re listed, you’ll benefit from surging buyer activity. The opportunity is real: record appreciation and steadying mortgage rates with the potential for more inventory and affordability in 2026. These conditions favor prepared participants. Real estate is about more than transactions—it’s about relationships and providing value at every stage of your journey. Whether you need a referral for anything related to your home and life, or you’re ready to make your next move, I’m here to help.
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THE 2025 CHICAGO REAL ESTATE MARKET BRIEF & 2026 FORECAST
As Mark Fleming said:
"Affordability [in 2026] should continue to improve, allowing more households to unlock the homeownership door and start the equity building journey." That’s the opportunity. The question is whether you’ll take it.
SOURCE: 2025 MRED
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