Are the Renewed Statistics and Probability Behind the "Draft Lottery" Used in the NBA Reliable and an Accurate Method of Levelling a Team's Ability?
Jack Kurtulus
The vast reformation of the NBA Draft Lottery throughout its years of existence has aided its rehabilitation into a reliable system. The changes of a team’s probability in obtaining different picks by increasing the amount of “chances” they have created a relative frequency and a more accurate set of data. The incorrect variation of probability between teams who had the same record was also resolved by this change. However, the unreliable nature of the “fourth pick” does lead me to believe that teams seeded here are at a disadvantage due to them having an increased probability of dropping into a later pick. The NBA Draft Lottery involves all thirty teams in the NBA and determines what position they will lie in the NBA draft. This allows teams with the worst records (games won to games lost) to have an increased probability in picking the best young prospects in college basketball. The positions from the fourth to the thirtieth picks are determined by the inverse order of the record of all thirty NBA teams. However, the main reason the Draft Lottery System is an accurate method of levelling a team’s ability is the system used to choose the top three picks which are designated by using a mathematical system involving combinations and probability. In order to get a better understanding of why most argued that the system should be updated we have to look back at what took place in the old NBA draft lottery. Initially the draft order was only determined by the inverse order of all the teams’ records. However, in 1966 the system was altered leading to a coin toss between the last place finisher in each of the NBA’s two divisions (the Eastern and Western Conferences) to determine who would get the first overall pick. 2 Despite this change, the system was ultimately flawed as there was no degree of mathematical randomness so the lottery could therefore be easily manipulated. This was shown when the Houston Rockets lost 20 of its last 27 games in suspicious circumstances to achieve a potential first round pick. They would eventually win the coin toss and pick Hakeem Olajuwon who would help improve the teams record from 29–53 in 1983–84 to 48–34 in 1984–85 3 which would lead to the beginning of the “old system”. Between 1990 and 1993, the best non-playoff teams had an unfair advantage over others with worst records as their probabilities of acquiring the first pick only slightly fluctuated. Within the “old system” (before the addition of new teams to the NBA roster) the team with the worst record had a very similar probability of achieving the first pick with other teams. This showed a clear mathematical error as there was no scaling of probabilities (shown in table 1) as the amount of “chances” was far too low to create enough variation. Out of 66, teams were given “chances” from eleven to one in descending order involving simple calculations and leading to the similar probabilities of all teams. The 1993 Draft would be a catalyst for the new system as the Orlando Magic, despite having the lowest probability of acquiring the first pick, ended up winning the lottery and drafting Chris Webber, who would add to the squad which also contained the previous season’s first pick, Shaquille O’Neill. Dallas, who were the team with the highest chance of having the first
2 Dengate, Jeff (May 16, 2007). "Let the Ping-Pong Balls Fall". NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. 3 Ballard, Chris (June 27, 2015) “The Ewing Conspiracy”. Sportsillistrated.com. 1985 The Best Year in Sports
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