The New System has a weighted advantage in favour of the most underperforming teams of the previous season with the teams in lower seeds having a much lower probability of obtaining the first pick [refer to table 2]. Between 1985 and 2016 the first pick has been acquired 23 times by a team within the fifth worst records the previous season. However, the most important difference in the draft lottery system is how the probability of obtaining a first round pick between teams which have exactly the same record are dealt with. In the “Old System”, teams with the same record would be randomly assigned a pick resulting in a team with less chances being at a greater disadvantage. For example in the 1990 NBA draft Miami and Orlando had a 18-64 record with the Heat being given 10 chances over Orlando’s 9 simply due to alphabetical order. This meant that the probabilities of these teams obtaining a first round pick differed by almost 0.02 percent giving Miami a significant advantage. Using simple statistical methods, we can prove that the increased amount of chances which were introduced with the New Draft System increased the reliability of the draft. As well as dealing with the problem of teams with a similar record (where now chances could be distributed equally due to their abundance), the probability of obtaining a first round pick was more reliable. Comparing theoretical and experimental probability, one can argue that with more chances comes more results which can help determine the odds of that event happening. For example, when tossing a coin 20 times - only one percentage can be obtained. However, after many more trials a relative frequency can be used despite multiple different outcomes which is why many consider the new system to be fairer as it uses more accurate probabilities.
Tables 3 and 4 – Results from multiple coin tosses 6
However, the new system neglects the unfair nature of the “fourth seeded team” which is at an advantage when certain conditions are met. To give an example I will use the Golden State Warriors who had the fourth worst record during the 2009-10 NBA season 7 . The chance that Golden State would move up to the third final draft position is a conditional probability if the teams that are seeded first and second acquire the first and second round picks. We can work out this probability by taking the amount of “chances” they had (104 combinations) and dividing by the remaining amount of chances from the other available picks 104 1000−250−199 = 0.189 (refer to Equation 1). It is clear the Warrior’s chance of obtaining the third pick increases when the worst teams receive the top two picks as opposed to when the best non-playoff teams receive them as their probability for the fourth seed remains at 0.104. Also using this equation we can demonstrate how the new system favours Golden State differently to the old system (when these conditions are met) by comparing
6 (March 27, 2005) “Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability” Softschools.com 7 (Last Updated October 4, 2015) “NBA Draft Lottery History” Realgm.com. Fox Sports
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