Overall, the probability theory behind the NBA Draft Lottery has been very accurate and, in practice, is a fair way of levelling a team’s ability. The new system has become more advantageous to the teams with the worst records while maintaining a “randomness” which stops teams from losing games deliberately in order to acquire a higher pick.
Year
Team
Record
Final Draft Position
4 th 5 th 5 th 5 th 2 nd 6 th 5 th 5 th 4 th 3 rd 5 th 3 rd 5 th 3 rd 6 th
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Milwaukee
25-57 21-61 19-63 22-60 23-59 27-55 25-57 26-56 26-56 30-52 22-60 23-59 26-56
Denver
Golden State
Denver
Traded Pick
Vancouver Vancouver
Denver Miami
Charlotte Portland
N/A (First year)
Hawks Hawks
Memphis Oklahoma
Golden State
Table 5 - Actual NBA Draft results for the team with the fourth worst record from 1996 to 2010 9
9 Florke, Chad and Ecker, Mark (December 1, 2003) “NBA Draft Lottery probabilities” American Journal of Undergraduate Research VOL. 2, NO. 3 (2003) Page 28
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