seasonality is back ( and macro-ality never left )
The Vancouver Region’s housing market saw fewer sales and listings in November, as is typical, but the degree to which each declined was notably atypical and largely determined by macroeconomic forces.
for sale (inventory) at the end of November. While this was 6% fewer than in October, it’s less than the typical October-to-November decline of 8%. What’s more, November’s active listings count was actually 0.7% above the long-run November average—the first time this has been the case since August 2019. More supply against the backdrop of depressed demand has put downward pressure on prices: in November alone, the composite benchmark price for the Vancouver Region declined by 1.0%, to $1,120,600. With the finish line to 2023 in sight, expect a similar one-two combination of seasonality and macro-ality to play out again in December. Sales, new listings, and inventory all typically experience a steep drop-off from November, and while this will undoubtedly be the case again this year, sales will be more of a seasonal outlier than will listings—good news, especially, for anyone who’s on the look-out for their first home.
With 2023 winding down and 2024 on the horizon, Metro Vancouver residents are turning their attention, as they often do, away from the buying and selling of real estate and towards the holiday season. And with that, there are a few predictable trends that occur in November (and then again in December)—namely, month-to-month declines in sales counts, new listings, and inventory. And while this “seasonality” was indeed back in all its glory last month, macroeconomic factors (particularly high interest rates) continued to weigh on the market, leading to a divergence between housing demand and supply. The flows of sales and new listings, while quite seasonal throughout the year, tend to move in lockstep with one another (home buyers are often also home sellers, and vice versa). In the spring, for example, both sales counts and new listings are generally higher and increasing—the sign of a robust housing
market. Conversely, both elements are typically lower and contracting as the days shorten and the temperature drops. What’s notable this year is that while both sales and new listings have been falling of late, the former is doing so much faster than the latter, resulting in some divergence. Let’s affix some real numbers to this. In November, there were 2,529 MLS transactions in the Vancouver Region, a 13% decline from October. This was over and above the typical October-to-November decrease (of 10%) and was 35% fewer than the past 10-year November average. Meanwhile there were 5,057 new listings in November, which was 28% less than October. While this was greater than the typically observed 20% decline, new listings sit just 2% below the long-run average for the month.
The product of this sales and new listings dynamic was the 15,645 homes available
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 11, 2023. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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