demographics
GROWTH BY ANY OTHER NAME…
After two consecutive years of record-shattering population growth, the federal government has pledged to reduce the pace of in-migration through a reduction in the non-permanent resident population.
Keeping track of a changing population is a tricky endeavour. The only true count of population comes every five years via the census, with the next iteration coming in 2026. In between each census period we have a variety of sources that are either estimates or proxies to help our understanding of how the population is evolving, each with their own drawbacks. And after record-setting population growth in 2022 and 2023, it is with great interest that we seek to learn how Canada’s population is changing so far in 2024. The quarterly demographic statistics from Statistics Canada are a good place to start
and can be counted on for accuracy, though as of writing this report only Q2 data are available. We can use the population of working-age Canadians from the Labour Force Survey, which we have through August, though this estimate is drawn from a small sample and then extrapolated. Lastly, we can look at the issuance of permits and permanent resident admissions through seven months of the year. The bottom line, though, is that regardless of which source we observe, they all point to continued population growth in 2024. The government’s plan to reduce the number of non-permanent residents does not appear to have started in any meaningful way.
SOURCES (OF POPULATION GROWTH) FOR COURSES
+1.5%
1,000,000
+32.3%
900,000
871,530 884,790
829,500
800,000
700,000
626,900
-9.2%
600,000
555,498
504,243
500,000
-0.2%
400,000
304,125 303,640
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
TOTAL POPULATION QDS
POPULATION LFS
NONPERMANENT IRCC
PERMANENT RESIDENTS IRCC
YTD YTD
SOURCE: LABOUR FORCE SURVEY & QUARTERLY POPULATION STATISTICS, STATISTICS CANADA. IMMIGRATION, REFUGEES, & CITIZENSHIP CANADA. DATA: YEAR-TO-DATE CHANGES IN POPULATION, VARIOUS MEASURES, CANADA
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