SpotlightSeptember2018

member’s votes. Some suggest his years of public service comes with baggage. Clarke disagrees and stands on his proven record and experience. If there is anything that may work against him, it is the absence of a safe seat for him to slide into through a by-election. Leading from outside the house is not an ideal scenario. Clarke’s also taken criticism for staying on as CBRM mayor while he runs for leader. So, who will win? It should be the person with the largest number of committed supporters. This is where the politics of party lead- ership races get ugly. In most cases, the people who signed up to support a can- didate will mail in their ballot, cancel their membership and likely never join a politi- cal party again. In many cases they may vote Liberal or NDP and not belong to any party come the next election. The race is not always about selecting the best ideas, it is about selling and counting memberships. The process is open to manipulation and con- ventions tend to be seedy events where treachery often rears its ugly head.

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Frommy viewpoint this race is down to Clarke and Houston.

Right now, I don’t think there is any question that Houston has outsold the other candidates in the membership category because he has been going strong since November. Some estimates are that a first ballot victory for him is possible. I think if support numbers stay the same, that is likely. However, that old seductress ‘Rosy Scenario’ can cause complacency. Complacency is what Cecil Clarke is hoping for and don’t count him out. The man has been around this game for a long time and knows the angles. Clarke must spend the next six weeks or so converting two groups of people. He needs all the undecided Tories he can get. He also needs to appeal to the people sup- porting Lohr, Chaisson and Smith-McCrossin to back his campaign to keep Houston out of the leader’s seat. Last minute deals on the convention floor are not as effective with the mail in ballot system. His team will need to get to work on their conversion strategies and alliances immediately. Does someone other than Clarke have a realistic chance at stopping Tim Houston? I cannot see it. Then again politics is like the late President John F. Kennedy said, “You know nothing for sure...except the fact that you know nothing for sure.”

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SEPTEMBER 2018 • SPOTLIGHT ON BUSINESS MAGAZINE

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