Book Review Annie Duke’s ‘Thinking in Bets’
BY THE NUMBERS Marketplace Trend Watch
Annie Duke may seem an unlikely business consultant given that she’s best known as a professional poker player. But the lessons in her new book, “Thinking in Bets,” extend far beyond the felt. Duke, who studied psychology at UPenn and has consulted for a number of companies, takes the decision- making lessons she learned at the poker table and applies them to the hard choices we have to make in business. To emphasize the nature of her work, Duke begins with an introduction called “Why This Isn’t a Poker Book.” She writes that the process of thinking in bets “starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.” When you make a decision, you rarely have perfect clarity regarding all the factors at play. This imperfect picture is what makes every business decision risky. Duke argues that ignoring inherent risk results in dangerous outcome- based thinking. As an alternative, she proposes that you acknowledge that not every decision will be the right one. This way, you can investigate the nature of your decision- making process and improve it without being blinded by lucky (or unlucky) results. Poker provides a fertile analogy for this concept. It’s a game of imperfect information. No matter how much poker you’ve played, you never know which cards the other players hold. You can guess based on the information you gather, but calling a bet is always risky. The process parallels how we decide what’s best for a company. We analyze all the information we have at hand and make a projection about the best option. Until the decision plays out, we won’t know the outcome. Though Duke knows more about poker than just about anyone, she doesn’t limit her examples to gambling. She writes with equal skill and depth about everything from CEOs to football coaches. “Thinking in Bets” is a comprehensive overview of risk assessment that provides countless tips on how to improve your decision-making. Even if you have no idea whether a flush beats a straight, you’ll find “Thinking in Bets” a valuable addition to your leadership library. Leadership requires making millions of decisions. Don’t you want to make them better?
And, that’s a wrap for Q1 of 2018. The stock market closed with some hard-hitting losses, especially for the S&P 500. As for the Nasdaq Composite, we saw some better first-quarter showings. Thanks to well-performing tech stocks, and despite a few dips in March, the Nasdaq came out on top at the end of the first quarter. Here’s a breakdown of what we saw at the end of the day.
10 2.9% $ 1B $ 100M
Number of successive positive quarters the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 went prior to breaking that trend in Q1 of 2018. Sectors that finished in the black this past quarter: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) up 2.6%, and Technology (XLK) up 2.3%.
Third and final Q4 ’17 GDP figure. Revised upward from 2.5%.
Amount paid in personal federal and state taxes by hedge-fund manager extraordinaire John Paulson, reportedly the largest personal liability ever paid. And you have it bad?
Maximum amount the federal government will accept on individual personal checks or money orders for tax liabilities. Does signing ten checks hurt more than only having to sign one? Yes, yes I believe it does.
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developed during the project uptake. Otherwise, you’re just making large bets with no sound hedge — a concept you can read more about in the review of Annie Duke’s book, “Thinking in Bets.” The bottom line? You need a repeatable scorecard process to confidently stand behind your portfolio. Send us an inquiry to learn more about our template and process.
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