3. CONTEXT & EXISTING CONDITIONS Development in the Gibsonton area and the communities to the south and east has resulted in increased traffic volumes, traffic congestion, and travel safety issues along corridors within the study area. Growth within and to the south and east of the study area has contributed to increases in peak period travel along US 301, Gibsonton Drive, Symmes Road, and US 41 corridors to and from regional employment centers northwest and north of the study area. To support efforts to identify potential transportation improvements for the study, evaluations of population and employment projections as well as safety and crash data was undertaken. Summaries of these analyses follow. 3.1 Existing Population/Employment & Projected Growth The projected population and employment growth in the Gibsonton area is anticipated to result in moderate changes in population and employment density. To understand the potential for increased demand on the area’s roadways, the study team evaluated the existing population and employment estimates for 2020 and 2040 projections from the TBRPM v8.2. (The 2040 projections were used to align with the traffic model origin/destination data that was used to develop the Aimsun model because the 2045 estimates were not available at the onset of the analysis.) In 2020, the study area is anticipated to have approximately 107,782 residents and 24,595 employees. By 2040, the area is anticipated to grow to 146,266 residents and 35,163 employees. Overall, the area is anticipated to see a 36 percent increase in residents and a 43 percent increase in employees from 2020 to 2040.
While the study area is anticipated to experience growth over the next 20 years, the study team wanted to better understand the locations where the new residents and employees are expected to change between 2020 and 2040. For each of the TAZs within the study area, the change in population and employment density between 2020 and 2040 was calculated. As shown in Figures 4 and 6, the 2020 employment and population densities within the study area are low, with the majority of the TAZs having less than five residents or employees per acre. Population and employment densities are expected to grow modestly by 2040. As shown on Figures 5 and 7, the increased residential growth will occur along the US 301 corridor, generally within the area between I-75, Gibsonton Drive, Symmes Road and Balm Riverview Road. Increased density is also anticipated north of Symmes Road between US 41 and I-75. However, the population density is expected to remain low, as the entire study area remains under 10 persons per acre. Increased employment density is anticipated to be limited, primarily occurring north of Riverview Drive along the western side of US 301 just north of the study limits. The majority of the study area will have less than five employees per acre in 2040. Based on the anticipated low population and employment densities over the next 20 years, the Gibsonton area will result in a continued reliance on single-occupancy vehicles and congestion will most likely continue to occur on the study area’s roadways. Given the low population and employment density, options for transit solutions are also limited.
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