Econ 101 (Sponsored by Exchange Bank)

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Doyle drives across The Golden Gate Bridge 1937, Doyle Drive in San Francisco was named in Frank Doyle's honor

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F or more than 135 years, Exchange Bank has helped North Bay businesses, families and communities grow through relationship- based banking and a longstanding commitment to local investment. Exchange Bank

and eventually founded the first Exchange Bank with his son Frank working as the bank’s cashier. The first location opened at Fourth Street and Mendocino Avenue in Santa Rosa on May 1, 1890. Frank was deeply committed to the overall well-being of his community. When the 1906 San Francisco earthquake devastated Santa Rosa, Frank played an important role in rebuilding what was lost. He even started the Santa Rosa Chamber of Commerce to jumpstart the local economy. In August 1916, Frank Doyle assumed the presidency of Exchange Bank, succeeding his father. Under his leadership, the bank continued to expand, opening a branch in Windsor. Frank later became known as the ‘Father of the Golden Gate’ for his instrumental role in advancing plans for a bridge connecting San Francisco to the North Bay. He served as one of the founding members of the Bridging the Golden Gate Association which later became

known as the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District in 1928. Frank was actually the one to cut the ceremonial chain on May 28, 1937. Today, Exchange Bank continues to honor Frank’s enduring commitment

Manville Doyle

Frank Doyle

was founded by Manville Doyle and his son, Frank P. Doyle, whose legacy would later become deeply intertwined with the North Bay’s growth and development. Manville came to California enticed by the gold rush of the 1850s. After relocating several times throughout the region, Manville settled in Santa Rosa with his family

to the North Bay through the Doyle Trust, which funds scholarships for Santa Rosa Junior College students. Since its establishment in 1949, the trust has contributed more than $105 million toward educational opportunities, supporting more than 150,000 students across generations. n

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ECON 101 The Strait Story: Thinking about Gas Prices

By Robert Eyler E nergy markets have moved to center stage in daily news coverage for geopolitical reasons. For North Bay residents, gas stations are among the most visible places to see daily prices. While energy markets are broader than just petroleum and gas at the pump, oil market dynamics influence gasoline prices and indirectly affect many markets. When those prices rise, they act as a multilayered regressive tax. The burden of this ‘tax’ falls most heavily on lower- and middle-income

households that commute or cannot easily shift to more energy-efficient transportation, goods or services. From a public policy standpoint, when gas prices increase, another layer of pressure on social mobility and economic equity emerges. This is also true for smaller businesses, which may be affected directly by rising gasoline prices (using their business vehicles or relying on delivery systems that may now be more expensive, making it harder to pass rising fuel costs on to customers) or indirectly (customers may purchase less, reducing price flexibility).

The figure shown here compares the wholesale price of oil, crude oil before refining, with the national average price of gasoline. The data are seasonally adjusted to remove some of the bumps, but I will close with some important (I think) considerations about gas price seasonality. These figures represent monthly averages from January 2000 to April 2026. Notice the far-right hand side and the purchasing- power outcome of the recent changes. The summer of 2008 saw a more dramatic spike, but that does not undermine the current pain. From a policy standpoint, rising gas prices create multifaceted concerns

Wholesale Oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude) and Retail Gasoline Prices, National US 2017 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 2000 to April 2026. Source: Federal Reserve (FRED); WTI and Brent on left axis, Gas Price on right axis.

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and policy challenges. We consider two concerns here. First, to what extent are gas prices contributing to broader inflationary pressure? For the American economy, three reasons are currently pressuring consumer prices (1) energy prices increase, across all fuel categories; (2) heightened tariff rates; and (3) continued economic growth and labor market resilience. The first two are supply-side issues; the third is a demand- side issue. Increasing interest rates—an option now being discussed by some Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members—may not curb inflation unless economic demand is the primary driver of rising prices. Second, futures markets for petroleum and gasoline help prolong higher gas prices. The longer spot prices for oil and gas remain elevated, futures markets can reinforce those higher price expectations for commodities, driving higher wholesale prices over time and lingering pressure in retail energy markets. This is especially true for energy-dependent firms such as airlines. Seasonality is a concern as the North Bay

enters the classic driving season in the United States. Will rising gas prices affect traveler demand? For the North Bay, the effects may be more mixed than in heavily tourism-dependent destinations such as Disneyland. Because airline prices have increased, including additional costs like baggage and seat selection once tickets are purchased. Residents of the greater Bay Area may opt for closer-to-home travel this summer, viewing Napa and Sonoma as alternative destinations until broader travel costs ease. With more driving, however, the demand side of the market puts pressure on fuel prices. It should be an interesting summer for energy prices unless there is an abrupt end to tensions and conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. On the positive side, the situation may

accelerate investment in renewable energy strategies. While artificial intelligence (AI) and related industries are attracting significant investment, this is a great time to consider how to further reduce American dependence on fossil fuels beyond our current adoption rate of renewables. The straight story is that a good crisis should not be wasted, and renewables are becoming a new focus of policy, perhaps merged with AI to increase efficiency. g

Founded in 1890, Exchange Bank is a full-service community bank serving the North Bay through a network of local branches and relationship- based banking services. Guided by a longstanding commitment to community investment, the bank continues to support local businesses, families and students through initiatives including the Doyle Trust scholarship program.

Dr. Robert Eyler is professor of economics at Sonoma State University and president of Economic Forensics and Analytics in Sonoma County.

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