RENNIE OUTLOOK 2024
UNEMPLOYMENT
Quickly-rising and higher interest rates have been doing their job of late, dampening economic growth and slowing the labour market. Indeed, over the past half-year, employment growth has been throttled, the number of unemployed people and the unemployment rate have risen, job vacancies have diminished, the number of EI claimants has grown, and per capita retail sales and GDP have fallen. One factor driving slower overall growth (or lack of growth) is the slowdown in household spending due to higher borrowing costs. Indeed, higher rates create a disincentive to spend (and, further, to borrow to spend), while at the same time incentivizing savings. Moreover, homeowners continue to renew at higher rates, which re-routes what otherwise would be spending to interest payments to the bank.
OUR 2024 OUTLOOK
The disinflationary momentum that is well underway thanks to higher interest rates will continue for months to come, pushing unemployment rates in Canada up further. In Metro Vancouver, we expect the jobless rate to climb from its current 6.2% to 7.0% by mid-year, before ending 2024 at 6.7% on the back of what will be, at that time, a declining interest rate environment.
Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of February 5, 2024. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 10
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