RENNIE OUTLOOK 2024
housing: clarity on rates leads to increased buying activity
RESALES
As expected, 2023 was a challenging year for Metro Vancouver’s housing market. After beginning the year with interest rates already at their highest in a generation, additional hikes put the brakes on demand and further eroded affordability for buyers. Our prediction of decreasing transaction counts in 2023 ultimately proved correct, though MLS sales sagged slightly more than we expected, to 40,000.
The trajectory for resale counts is expected to be upward-sloping in 2024, with the second half of the year benefiting from interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada.
OUR 2024 OUTLOOK
Pent-up demand in the Vancouver Region’s housing market will bring increasing sales counts as interest rates decline, with a total of 49,000 MLS sales predicted for the year—23% more than in 2023. We expect sales to reach 15,000 for detached homes, 10,000 for townhomes, and 24,000 for condos.
PRE-SALES
The pre-sale market was affected by the same macroeconomic challenges as the resale segment and the results were similar—namely, that buyers largely pulled back amidst high interest rates and an uncertain future. Ultimately, the region tallied just over 11,500 pre-sales last year, which was 20% fewer than in 2022 and 25% below the past 10-year average.
The expectation for the year ahead is a pre-sale market that improves as the year progresses, alongside increasing resale counts and prices, and decreasing mortgage rates.
OUR 2024 OUTLOOK
We expect Metro Vancouver’s pre-sale market to be more robust in 2024 than in 2023, with slightly more activity in H2 than in H1. Overall, we anticipate a total of 13,000 pre-sales this year, including 6,000 concrete homes, 4,500 woodframe homes, and 2,500 townhomes.
Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of February 5, 2024. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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