RENNIE OUTLOOK 2024
demographics: the beat goes on
TOTAL POPULATION
After setting a record for population growth in 2022—by adding more than 930,000 people—Canada should have been poised for some reversion to the mean in 2023…right? Maybe so, but that’s not how things played out. While full-year 2023 figures won’t be in until the spring, we estimate (based on the three quarters of data we do have, supplemented with information from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada) that Canada added 1.2 million people last year—another new record that is unlikely to be matched in 2024, thanks in part to the new cap on student visas. Regardless, Metro Vancouver is set for another year of robust population growth in the year ahead.
OUR 2024 OUTLOOK
On the back of robust inflows of net international migrants, we expect Metro Vancouver to add 80,000 residents in 2024, nudging its population closer to the 3-million mark. While high in a historical context, growth of this magnitude would be less than that of 2023.
IMMIGRATION
In November 2023, Canada’s federal government extended its annual permanent resident (PR) target one additional year, with the aim of adding 485,000 PRs in 2024, 500,000 in 2025, and another 500,000 again in 2026. With Metro Vancouver accommodating approximately one of every eight new permanent residents, it’s positioned to welcome an influx of PRs who will both contribute to the local economy and necessitate a commensurate addition of homes to the existing dwelling stock.
OUR 2024 OUTLOOK
A new, higher national immigration target in 2024 will be accompanied by continued growth in Canada’s metro areas. Metro Vancouver will experience this first-hand as it adds 60,000 permanent residents this year—a new record.
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