JON: We actually just got a real smoking-gun moment that really backs this up, too. Earlier this year, a draft memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth got leaked to the press.
Last year, it achieved 138 orbital launches. That’s nearly half of all launches worldwide. ROB: In other words, SpaceX basically launched as many rockets as everyone else put together. JOEL: Correct... An Oxford professor actually looked into it and found that SpaceX is twice as fast as NASA...
In it, he explicitly laid out that he wants to speed the contract cycle up. He wants to deploy new technology faster. Ultimately, the DOD wants to get new technology systems up and running in days or even hours, rather than months. I think that’s your smoking gun. ROB: So what we’re really saying here is that DOGE is already having an impact. They want to see AI deployed at scale across government. And they want that process to move fast – as fast as one of Elon’s private companies. That means we’re going to see more AI contracts issued... at a much faster pace than we’ve seen in the past? JON: Absolutely, that’s fair – I think that’s exactly what we’re going to see. JOEL: This is a point we really need to stress – PHASE II is going to play out a lot faster than you might think. You only have to look at how fast Elon moves with his own companies to see this is true. At SpaceX, his strategy is to “test until it breaks.” He wants to move quickly and learn what works versus what doesn’t. That’s what propelled it from a total upstart to the dominant player in the world. Today, SpaceX is far more effective than even NASA. It’s outcompeted the government.
So, when we say Elon has a crazy sense of urgency, that’s what we mean. At the same time as being faster, SpaceX was also 10 TIMES CHEAPER than NASA. Now, what happens when Elon brings that urgency – and efficiency – to rolling out AI across the government? ROB: Everything plays out in double quick time. JOEL: That’s why we want to share our research on the stocks we think are going to be involved. Because these companies could start getting contracts right away. There’s an absolutely massive opportunity here – but it’s not going to be around forever. JON: I saw a Bank of America report that called these AI companies “efficiency enablers” – it actually specifically named Palantir as one of them. ROB: That’s a great way to put it... If Phase I was about cutting and auditing, PHASE II is about doing deals with efficiency enablers. JON: We’re seeing this change things on the ground for contractors already.
REVIEW BY JULY 18
DOGE: PHASE II // PAGE 15
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