ODERN M INING APRIL 2026 | Vol 21 No 4 For people who are serious about mining
Gold: locked and loaded Sanankoro Gold in the starting blocks How Rare Earths are powering the green transition Firering diversifies product offerings and eyes new markets SA takes the lead as global home of Weir’s ENDURON ® Elite screens IN THIS ISSUE
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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK 8 How Rare Earths are powering the green transition 10 Gold: locked and loaded 14 Silver’s Rise and Fall: Volatility Versus Sovereignty
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MINING INDABA REVIEW 18 Sanankoro Gold in the starting blocks
20 Firering diversifies product offerings and eyes new markets 22 Tech innovation revolutionising exploration, Mining Indaba hears 24 Hitachi Energy named leader in Asset Performance Management 25 Astron Energy: A Strategic Pillar of South Africa’s Economy TECHNOLOGY 26 SA takes the lead as global home of Weir's ENDURON ® Elite screens MINING EQUIPMENT 31 Mobility as a strategic advantage for mines and quarries REGULARS MINING NEWS 4 ERG’s Metalkol site awarded The Copper Mark Caterpillar acquires RPMGlobal Serval Resources commences exploration programme 5 Tsodilo Resources confirms rare earth discovery Exxaro concludes acquisition of manganese assets Rio Tinto approves Zulti South investment of R8.5 billion 6 Mineral price gains boost tax collections
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ODERN M INING APRIL 2026 | Vol 21 No 4 For people who are serious about mining
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SUPPLY CHAIN NEWS 32 ALCO-Safe becomes SANAS-accredited for breathalyser calibration Volvo Construction Equipment’s new-generation wheel loaders COLUMN 28 The budget, road freight logistics and the consumer
ON THE COVER The mining sector has come to the rescue of the country, helping alleviate fiscal pressure by providing substantial tax revenue and foreign exchange.
Gold: locked and loaded Sanankoro Gold in the starting blocks How Rare Earths are powering the green transition Firering diversifies product offerings and eyes new markets SA takes the lead as global home of Wier’s ENDURON ® Elite screens IN THIS ISSUE
April 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 1
Mining to the rescue A s the world and South Africa brace for soaring oil prices following the US-Israel- Iran conflict, the future is looking increasingly bleak. By the second week of
exports. Gold and PGMs account for about 40% of South Africa’s mining production and employ about 262 000 people out of the industry’s 474 000-strong workforce. “Mining should be a sector of national economic priority. Given the government’s continued social expenditure to avert social distress, and to deliver essential basic services and infrastructure, mining’s ability to deliver, ensure its future growth, and to leverage its employment multipliers, the sector has an important role in South Africa’s future social and economic security,” said Mzila Mthenjane, CEO of the Minerals Council. He added though, that given the current outlook for mining volumes which continues to contract, the council would like to see incentives for mining in future budgets that encourage exploration as well as assistance to sectors that are under distress such as ferrochrome and diamonds to increase production and to sustain and grow jobs in longer term. In this edition This issue delivers a strong focus on sovereignty (pg 14) and the World Gold Council’s insight on the drivers for the surge in demand for gold, including flagging a new market entrant - Tether, a US dollar-pegged stablecoin. With the stablecoin business approaching $200 billion in scale, Tether represents a meaningful financial force and, if it continues accumulating gold, its impact could grow significantly, the World Gold Council’s John Reade tells Modern Mining (pg 10). Also of note is an interview with Cora Gold, which is eager to begin construction of its flagship Sanankoro Gold Project in south Mali (pg 18) and Firering Strategic Minerals, which is advancing several parallel initiatives. These include diversifying its lime product range, expanding into new markets in Zimbabwe and Zambia, and advancing ancillary revenue streams such as the development of a cement plant for limestone powder production (pg 20). Commodities Outlook, with an article on How Rare Earths are powering the green transition (pg 8), Silver’s rise and fall: volatility versus
March, oil prices surged over 20% to pass $100 a barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime oil chokepoint, with roughly 20% of global oil consumption and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flowing through it, added to the world’s fuel woes. The conflict sees continued damage to key infrastructure and loss of lives with the resultant supply chain chokehold on fuel set to impact all trading partners. Referencing the conflict, Dr Azar Jammine, Chief Economist at Econometrix, a keynote speaker at the recently held Afrisam Budget
Breakdown Breakfast, advised that imminent shortages of supply are
going to change the global environment in a significant way, with the price of goods and services set to soar, and “as a consequence, interest rates around the world may not come down to the extent that we anticipated”. Given its location at the southern tip of Africa,
According to the Minerals Council South Africa, the upswing in prices for gold and platinum group metals (PGMs) contributed to the R21.3 billion increase in gross tax revenue.
Nelendhre Moodley.
South Africa—long regarded as an unsafe place—finds itself favourably situated and removed from the direct theatre of war. For some good news on the homefront – the mining sector has, once again, come to the rescue of the country, helping alleviate fiscal pressure and reduce the need for sharper tax increases by providing substantial tax revenue and foreign exchange. High precious metal prices, particularly for gold, have significantly boosted export revenue in recent months. Gold has remained above $5 000 /oz given its safe-haven asset status, with silver and platinum also experiencing sharp gains. According to the Minerals Council South Africa, the upswing in prices for gold and platinum group metals (PGMs) contributed to the R21.3 billion increase in gross tax revenue. Mining tax collections increased by 29%, mainly because of higher gold and PGM prices and increased chrome and manganese
Editor: Nelendhre Moodley e-mail: mining@crown.co.za Advertising Manager: Rynette Joubert
e-mail: rynettej@crown.co.za Design & Layout: Ano Shumba Publisher: Karen Grant
Deputy Publisher: Wilhelm du Plessis Circulation: Brenda Grossmann and Shaun Smith Published monthly by: Crown Publications (Pty) Ltd P O Box 140, Bedfordview, 2008 Tel: (+27 11) 622-4770 Fax: (+27 11) 615-6108 e-mail: mining@crown.co.za www.modernminingmagazine.co.za
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MINING NEWS
ERG’s Metalkol site awarded The Copper Mark Metalkol SA, a subsidiary of Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), announced that the Metalkol site was recently awarded The Copper Mark, becoming the first ever mining tailings processing operation to achieve this recognition. The award confirms that Metalkol’s
operations meet internationally recognised Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards for responsible copper production. As one of the world’s largest standalone cobalt suppliers, Metalkol also produces this critical mineral under the same standards. The Copper Mark is a leading voluntary third-party assurance framework that verifies responsible production practices across the copper, molybdenum, nickel, and zinc industries. It provides external validation of a site’s performance and aligns with the UN Sustainable
Metalkol site awarded The Copper Mark, becoming the first ever tailings processing operation to achieve the standard.
producer specialising in the processing of historic mining tailings. This achievement forms part of a continuous performance improvement cycle with periodic reassessments. Valid for three years, it requires regular performance monitoring to ensure continued progress. n Serval Resources commences exploration programme Serval Resources has, with approval from Kalahari Copper (KCL), commenced its first exploration work programme for 2026 on KCL’s Botswana assets in the Kalahari Copper Belt (KCB), which is considered one of the most prospective areas in the world for new sedimentary copper discoveries. PL061 is held by Dalsu Investment, a wholly owned subsidiary of KCL. The company has entered into a conditional share purchase agreement to acquire all the shares in KCL. The programme will incorporate a ground magnetic geophysical survey on Licence PL061 to evaluate the regionally mapped Ngwako Pan (oxidised sandstone) and D’Kar Formation (reduced shale) contact, being the primary reduction-oxidation (Redox)-controlled target for significant sediment-hosted copper-silver mineralisation in the KCB. This ties in with the Q4 2025 geophysical programme conducted on PL082 with approval from KCL, with both PL061 and PL082 being located along strike of Cobre’s Ngami Project. n
Development Goals, the ILO Conventions, the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), the OECD Minerals Guidance and ICMM Principles. Located in Lualaba Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Metalkol is a leading copper and cobalt
Caterpillar acquires RPMGlobal
Caterpillar has acquired RPMGlobal Holdings, an Australian-based mining software company.
“Acquiring RPMGlobal is a notable milestone supporting our strategy to solve the challenges our mining customers face every day,” said Denise Johnson, group president, Caterpillar Resource Industries. “By combining RPMGlobal’s software capabilities with Caterpillar’s proven equipment and technology solutions, we will unlock new opportunities to help customers improve mine site performance, while advancing the future of mining technology in a way that is practical, scalable and grounded in their needs.” n
NYSE-listed Caterpillar Inc. has acquired RPMGlobal Holdings, an Australian- based mining software company. The acquisition expands Caterpillar’s portfolio of data-driven mining technology and software solutions that help customers plan, operate and manage their sites more efficiently. Headquartered in Brisbane, Australia, RPMGlobal has deep domain expertise in mining technology enablement, providing customers with data-driven software solutions across the mining value chain.
4 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | April 2026
Tsodilo Resources confirms rare earth and critical minerals discovery Canadian miner, Tsodilo Resources has discovered rare earths and critical minerals in Botswana amid US–China supply race. The discovery is at the company’s Gchwihaba Metals project near Shakawe in north-west Botswana. The find follows systematic exploration of the C26 and C27 targets and confirms a high-grade polymetallic system located between 20 and 50 metres below the surface, a depth that could support commercial extraction if further studies prove viable. Tsodilo said the deposits contain 15 Tsodilo Resources has discovered rare earth and critical minerals in Botswana.
rare earth elements along with five other critical minerals: copper, cobalt, nickel, vanadium and silver. Technical analysis shows the C26 and C27 skarns contain all 15 rare earth elements listed on the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 Critical Minerals List. “The targets were originally identified
in the production of electric vehicles, wind turbines, battery storage systems, defence electronics and advanced telecommunications infrastructure. Demand has surged as countries accelerate energy transition and industrial modernisation efforts. n
as geophysical anomalies through ground magnetic and gravity surveys. Subsequent diamond core drilling has confirmed that these anomalies host skarn-type mineralisation containing an extensive suite of minerals,” the company said. Rare earth elements are essential
Exxaro concludes acquisition of manganese assets
Rio Tinto approves Zulti South investment of R8.5 billion
JSE-listed Exxaro Resources has acquired select manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH, making it a globally meaningful manganese player. Following the fulfilment of all suspensive conditions, except for Mokala, R10.6 billion was transferred to the sellers. Following implementation of the First Sale Transaction and OMH Transaction, Exxaro now holds an effective equity interest in the manganese assets as follows: 100% of Ntsimbintle Mining (which owns 50.1% of the Tshipi Borwa Mine, with the remaining 49.9% owned by Jupiter); 19.99% of Jupiter; 100% of Ntsimbintle Marketing; 9% of Hotazel Manganese Mines. Ben Magara, Exxaro CEO said, “Exxaro becomes a globally significant manganese producer with its interest in Tshipi Borwa mine, the world’s 4th largest manganese mine in South Africa’s Kalahari Manganese Field, home to around 80% of the world’s known manganese resources. Tshipi is a world-class, long-life asset, favourably positioned on the industry cost curve. The acquisition also includes the marketing entities and equity interest in Hotazel Manganese Mines.” n
Global mining group, Rio Tinto, recently approved Richards Bay Minerals’ Zulti South project. The roughly R8.5 billion investment aims to extend the mine’s life to 2050 and ensure RBM’s operational continuity for years to
Rio Tinto approves Zulti South investment of R8.5 billion.
come. Richards Bay Minerals (RBM) currently operates within the Zulti North lease area, which includes a mineral separation plant and smelting facility. As the orebody at Zulti North declines, Zulti South is important to RBM for maintaining a stable supply of zircon, rutile, and ilmenite and supporting TiO₂ sales over the life of the mine. China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) has been appointed as the EPC contractor for the construction of Zulti South due their proven performance and strong track record including a strategic partnership with Rio Tinto on the Simandou project in Guinea. Werner Duvenhage, Managing Director of Rio Tinto Iron & Titanium Africa Operations & RBM said: “This project is not about expansion; it represents our commitment to sustaining jobs and continuing to make a meaningful contribution to the province, the country, and the host communities. The decision to proceed also reflects improved security conditions and strengthened community partnerships.” n
The Tshipi Borwa mine is the world’s 4th largest manganese mine in South Africa’s Kalahari Manganese Field.
April 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 5
MINING NEWS
Gold and PGMs account for about 40% of South Africa’s mining production and employ about 262 000 people.
Mineral price gains boost tax collections and reinforce mining’s economic role
The Minerals Council South Africa notes that the National Budget presented by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana was delivered on the back of key milestones achieved for the South African economy. While mining was not overtly mentioned, the upswing in prices for gold and platinum group metals (PGMs) underpinned the fiscus and contributed to the R21.3 billion increase in gross tax revenue.
T he important partnership between the government and the private sector to address crises in electricity supply, logistics, and crime and corruption contributed to, inter alia, the removal of South Africa from the Financial Action
Gold and PGMs account for about 40% of South Africa’s mining production and employ about 262,000 people out of the industry’s 474,000-strong workforce. “The absence of any direct mention
With the current outlook for mining volumes to continue contracting, we’d
of mining’s performance and its contribution to the fiscus, despite its significant impact on tax and the budget surplus was a missed opportunity. Mining should be a sector of national economic priority. Given the government’s continued social expenditure to avert social distress, and to deliver essential basic services and infrastructure, mining’s
Task Force (FATF) grey list and the S&P rerating, which have improved investor sentiment and confidence towards the country. Mining tax collections increased by 29%, mainly because of higher gold and PGM prices and increased chrome and manganese exports. Near-term benefit of the upswing
like to see incentives for mining in future budgets that encourage exploration as well as assistance to sectors that are under distress such as ferrochrome and diamonds to increase production and to sustain and grow jobs in longer term.
ability to deliver, ensure its future growth, and to leverage its employment multipliers, the sector has an important role in South Africa’s
in gold and PGM prices is positive for the fiscal outlook, but the improvement is based on a small group of minerals and purely because of increased prices rather than higher production.
future social and economic security,” says Mzila
6 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | April 2026
Electricity tariffs increased more than 900% for industrial users since 2008.
Mthenjane, CEO of the Minerals Council. “The mining industry is disappointed that there was no mention in the Budget about reduced electricity tariffs for the ferroalloys industry, which is facing closure and job losses because of the more than 900% increase in electricity prices for industrial users since 2008, rendering the industry uncompetitive,” says Bongani Motsa, Acting Chief Economist at the Minerals Council. We expect commodity prices to remain at elevated levels for gold and PGMs, however the sustainable impact for South Africa demands increased production across all minerals and infrastructure capacity. “With the current outlook for mining volumes to continue contracting, we’d like to see incentives for mining in future budgets that encourage exploration as well as assistance to sectors that are under distress such as ferrochrome and diamonds to increase production and to sustain and grow jobs in longer term,” says Mthenjane. The increased allocation of R21.9 billion to five major projects, which includes restoring capacity on the iron ore and coal railway lines to 77 million tonnes and 60 million tonnes, respectively, is welcomed. Coal and iron ore account for an additional 40% of mining production and nearly 121,000 direct mining jobs. Government’s infrastructure push is accelerating in 2025/26, with total planned public-sector investment of R1.07 trillion over the medium term, more than half of which (54.1% or R577.4 billion) will be delivered by state-owned companies and public entities. Compared to 2024/25, energy infrastructure spending increased by 17% (from R50.6 billion to R59.2 billion), water and sanitation by 29% (from R48.6 billion to R62.7 billion), and transport and logistics by 19% (from R109.6 billion to R130.7 billion), underscoring a strong near-term focus on network industries
The upswing in prices for gold and platinum group metals underpinned the fiscus and contributed to the R21.3 billion increase in gross tax revenue.
critical to economic growth and mining and industry performance. Mineral royalties projections rose to R11.8 billion, up from R10.6 billion collected in the previous year, while corporate profitability strengthened through 2025. Mining contributed towards higher dividend taxes collected by the government. Finance Minister Godongwana said there is a growing primary budget surplus, that revenue collection continued to exceed projections and that the debt to GDP ratio is projected to peak in the current fiscal year which should be positive for South Africa’s credit ratings, reducing the cost of government debt. “These outcomes underline the extent to which it is essential to accelerate the structural reforms we have seen to date and pragmatic policy reforms with regards to mineral resources development, reinforcing the importance of enabling sustained growth and job creation through increased production in the sector if such fiscal gains are to become more regular and reliable rather than cyclical,” says Motsa. n
April 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 7
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
How Rare Earths are powering the green transition Rare earth elements are essential components of various modern technologies, powering electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones, and advanced defence systems. From industrial robotics and engineering to consumer electronics and medical applications, rare earths are found in nearly every major industrial sector.
A s the renewable energy transition praseodymium are critical for green technologies, particularly in producing high-strength permanent magnets for electric vehicle motors and wind turbines. According to the Harvard International Review, an electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional vehicle, and a wind plant requires nine times more minerals than a gas-fired plant. Data from the International Energy Agency shows global EV sales have risen from around 14 million in 2023 to over 20 million in 2025, accounting for over 25% of new accelerates, the strategic importance of these elements is also becoming more significant. Neodymium, dysprosium, and cars sold. With each electric vehicle battery requiring between 1-2 kilograms of rare earth magnet material, the expanding popularity of EVs translates directly into rising demand for these elements. Wind energy provides another key demand driver. The Global Wind Energy Council reports record new wind capacity additions in recent years, with annual installations surpassing 100 gigawatts globally in 2024. Offshore wind turbines, in particular, frequently use direct-drive
systems that incorporate large permanent magnets, significantly increasing rare earth intensity per megawatt. Together, the increased proliferation of electric vehicles and wind power has helped to sharply accelerate rare earth demand. Current projections by the Harvard International Review suggest overall demand for rare earths could increase sixfold by 2040. As a result, questions of geopolitical leverage and supply-chain resilience are moving to the forefront, with rare earths becoming a key part of industrial strategy and national security. The US Geological Survey has documented this rising consumption of rare earths over the past several years, whilst also highlighting that global mine output remains highly geographically concentrated. China dominates the sector, accounting for approximately 95% of global rare earth processing capacity, across extraction, separation, and refining, and holds approximately 44 million tonnes of reserves. By comparison, Brazil is estimated to possess around 21 million tonnes, and Australia around six million, highlighting the imbalance between resource distribution. Recent geopolitical developments have
Tim Harrison, CEO of ASX listed Ionic Rare Earths.
8 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | April 2026
Crushed magnets, containing magnet rare earth elements.
Magnet recycling streams and separated magnet rare earth oxides
The shift towards a secure and transparent Rare Earth supply Companies such as Ionic Rare Earths (ASX: IXR) are positioning themselves at the centre of this strategic shift. Ionic is actively countering the implications of a concentrated global rare earth supply chain by delivering ready-to-market magnets and heavy rare earth oxides through advanced magnet recycling, refineries, and the development of high-performance magnet production facilities. Through its UK subsidiary, Ionic Technologies, the company is developing a rare earth magnet recycling facility in Belfast focused on producing separated magnet rare earth oxides from recycled feedstock. The Belfast facility has been recognised as a ‘Strategically Important Project’ by the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (“FORGE”), and in January 2026, was issued a £12 million Offer in Principle by the UK Government as a cornerstone investment for an £85 million commercial scale rare earth oxide facility. This would be fed with only secondary materials such as permanent and pre- consumer magnets, and supply chain materials. The project is designed to produce 400 metric tonnes per annum of high-purity (99.5%+) separated magnet rare earth oxides, utilising Ionic Technologies’ patented long-loop recycling technology. This recycling process delivers high- purity rare earth oxides, with the flexibility to manufacture any grade required for next-generation permanent magnets. By focusing only on target elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, this ensures products can be delivered rapidly. It also strengthens sovereign supply chains by reducing reliance on primary extraction and overseas processing, contributing to a sustainable supply chain for UK advanced manufacturing. This strategy aligns with broader UK and European policy frameworks that prioritise critical mineral resilience and sovereignty. More broadly, geopolitical tensions are reshaping global trade flows and investment priorities. Export controls and supply chain concentration have elevated rare earths to strategic assets, with governments and corporations seeking to establish diversity and reduce dependence on a single dominant producer. Over the coming years, projects that can deliver reliable, transparent, and secure rare earth supply are likely to command increasing strategic and financial significance in an evolving global landscape. n
highlighted the vulnerabilities that this supply chain concentration creates. In February 2026, China’s commerce ministry restricted exports of rare earth magnets and other dual-use materials to dozens of major Japanese companies, escalating tensions with Tokyo. The move included freezing exports to 20 companies and placing another 20 on a watch list, with the aim of curbing Japan’s remilitarisation and nuclear ambition. These restrictions highlight how export controls can be used as leverage in broader economic disputes. Similarly, a global race for Brazil’s substantial rare earth deposits is intensifying, with the US, China and EU all competing for access amid rising trade tensions. At least six mining projects are developing prospects in Brazil, with several companies reporting being approached by Chinese groups, including investment funds and carmakers looking to secure material. In line with this, Western governments are actively seeking to reduce reliance on these concentrated supply chains. The role of rare earth magnets in advanced defence systems, including missile and radar capabilities, makes this even more crucial, with policymakers prioritising diversification to ensure their defence abilities do not rely on China. Efforts are now underway to develop alternative supply routes, new mining projects, and invest in recycling technologies, to build integrated supply chains that include separation, refining, and magnet production outside China.
April 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 9
GOLD
By the end of 2025, gold was trading at a record high of just under $4 300 per ounce.
Gold: locked and loaded
Gold continues its meteoric rise, reaching several all-time highs in January alone to reach over $5 000 oz. But what is driving this surge in demand? Are traditional buyers simply increasing their allocations to the precious metal, or has a new player entered the market and begun to reshape the landscape? For answers to this and other important questions, Modern Mining caught up with the World Gold Council’s John Reade for insight into the world of gold.
A nd yes, beyond the traditional investors that include central banks, private investors, the jewellery industry and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), is Tether, and not the gold back BRICS currency, the Unit, which has muscled in on the market, says Reade. So, what is Tether and how has it edged its way in? Tether is the issuer of the world’s largest
USD-pegged stablecoin (USDT) that has rapidly emerged as a major player in the physical gold market, leveraging its immense profitability to amass an estimated 148 tons of gold (valued at ~$23–24 billion as of early 2026). Through its tokenised gold product, Tether Gold (XAU₮), and direct, aggressive physical gold acquisitions, Tether now controls over 60% of the gold-backed stablecoin market.
John Reade, World Gold Council Market Strategist for Asia and Europe.
10 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | April 2026
We are seeing notable activity in the options market on COMEX, the US futures exchange. Several investors have been purchasing call options with strike prices of $10 000 an ounce, expiring in December 2026. In other words, they are buying financial derivatives that would pay off if gold were to reach — or exceed — that level. This does not mean gold is heading to $10 000 /oz. However, it does indicate that some investors are willing to pay a premium for exposure to extreme upside scenarios. We have even observed open interest in contracts structured to benefit if gold were to trade in a $15 000 to $20 000 range. These positions are relatively inexpensive — effectively “lottery tickets” in the derivatives market — but they show that at least some participants see the possibility of substantially higher prices. We would not comment on the probability of such outcomes. Those levels would far exceed what we would typically expect gold to deliver in a single year. That said, given the extraordinary price performance of the past few years, I have learned to be cautious about dismissing any scenario outright,” notes Reade. High gold prices reshaping the global economy? So, what has been the key driver for the sharp rise in gold prices over the recent past? Reade points to growing investor anxiety regarding the outlook for the US dollar and the US Treasury market. While higher gold prices benefit certain parts of the global economy, they also reflect broader concerns about risk and uncertainty in financial markets. In that sense, it’s both good news and bad news.
“Tether is a US dollar-pegged stablecoin issuer with multiple tokens. Its largest product is a dollar-backed stablecoin supported by roughly $180 billion in assets. Tether has significantly increased its exposure to gold within the reserves backing its dollar stablecoin. It has benefited from the recent rise in gold prices and appears to be taking a more strategic approach to the metal. The firm has reportedly hired two senior gold traders from HSBC, one of the world’s leading bullion banks, and is said to be in discussions with various participants across the gold market,” explains Reade. He adds that with the stablecoin business approaching $200 billion in scale, Tether represents a meaningful financial force. “Its leadership is reportedly extremely bullish on gold and increasingly cautious about the medium-term outlook for the U.S. dollar. As a result, Tether has become an interesting and potentially influential player in the gold market. If it continues accumulating gold, its impact could grow significantly. While exact figures are not publicly confirmed, estimates suggest Tether purchased around 100 tonnes of gold last year. In the context of a roughly 5 000-tonne annual global gold market, that represents a relatively small share — but it is still a notable and supportive source of demand.” Could gold potentially reach $10 000 /oz in the short-to- medium term? “My experience of the past two years has taught me not to rule anything out when it comes to gold’s upside potential.
“Many investors — most of whom invest in a range of assets alongside gold — remain concerned about the overall health and prospects of the global economy.” However, while gold is a small component of the global economy, it remains an important one, with countries that produce and export large quantities gold benefiting from the increased foreign exchange earnings, and the companies that mine gold, performing extremely well financially. In South Africa, for example, high gold and commodity prices have helped bolster the local economy in 2025/2026, serving as a “golden lifeline” that has plugged budget gaps, improved tax revenues, and helped stabilise public debt. Surging gold prices—hovering near record highs of over $4 800–$5 000/ oz—combined with strong PGM prices, boosted mining tax collections by over 29% as of December 2025. More broadly, however, elevated gold prices have had limited negative consequences for the global economy, although effects have been felt in gold- producing countries, where higher prices
Who Buys Gold? • The largest sources of gold demand remain: • Central banks • Private investors (primarily bars and coins) • The jewellery sector – particularly in China and India • Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
April 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 11
GOLD
“These activities suggest a large-scale operation capable of producing around 1.5 million ounces a year could be brought into production within the next five to ten years. It’s a clear example of how higher prices can catalyse the development of major projects. If gold continues to trend upward, we are likely to see additional projects move forward. In the near term, however, growth is expected to remain relatively modest, with stronger expansion more likely over the medium term,” Reade argues.
tend to support revenues, investment and economic activity.
Surging price on gold production It has long been maintained that gold supply growth is constrained, offering limited flexibility, but has the surging gold price changed that outlook? According to Reade, with gold prices having more than
doubled in recent years, mining companies are increasingly motivated to unlock additional ounces. Producers are actively pursuing new opportunities, including ore bodies that were previously considered too difficult or uneconomic to develop. Reade cites the Donlin Gold
Africa remains the world’s leading gold- producing region and strong prices have reinforced the continent’s importance in the global gold market. Looking ahead, Africa appears well positioned to maintain its
Beyond the traditional investors that include central banks, private investors, the jewellery industry and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), is Tether, and not the gold back BRICS currency, the Unit, which has muscled in on the market.
project in Alaska, a long-known project which, given the soaring gold price, is now a viable project for development. As of early 2026, the project is advancing toward a construction decision. A Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) is underway, with a prime contractor
leadership. There is a substantial pipeline of potential new projects, particularly in West and Central Africa, with additional opportunities emerging in parts of East Africa. Overall, the continent is expected to remain a cornerstone of global gold supply for the foreseeable future. In line with this sentiment, Reade notes that junior mining companies are busy raising significant funding to advance gold projects. Canadian Bankers, in particular, are aiding junior mining companies across all sectors – be it gold, silver, uranium or copper - advance the discovery of key commodities. Moreover, Reade expects there could be more mergers and acquisitions taking place as large scale gold producers look to supplement current production rates. “It is often easier to acquire another mining company, or a group of gold mines, than it is to find and build a mine from scratch.
selection expected in Q1 2026, following strong 2025 drilling results and key Alaska Supreme Court permit validations. In February,
the company selected Fluor Corporation to lead the Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) as the engineering firm. Further to this, a new agreement for natural gas supply was signed recently, and high-grade drilling results continue to support the project’s massive potential. The project is proposed as a massive open-pit mine, designed to produce more than 1 million oz of gold annually over a 27-year lifespan. It is one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold deposits, co-owned by Novagold Resources.
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Demand supply fundamentals Discussing demand/supply fundamentals for gold, Reade says that one of the most significant trends observed, is the sharp rise in investment demand, alongside continued — albeit slightly lower — central bank purchases. “That additional demand must be met from somewhere.” On the supply side, growth remains limited.
Impact of soaring gold prices on other precious metals Interestingly, the soaring price of gold has triggered a similar upward trajectory in other precious metals like silver and PGMs. Silver, driven by both investor demand and industrial use (solar, EVs), has risen over 150% in the past year. Increased costs are also impacting industrial applications,
Mine production is expanding only slowly, and recycling — including jewellery scrap — has also increased at a modest pace. As a result, the surge in investment demand over the past year has been largely accommodated by a decline in jewellery consumption.
forcing manufacturing, electronics, and aerospace sectors to adjust to higher material expenses.
“Silver has largely followed gold’s upward trajectory through much of 2025. After lagging in the previous couple of years, investors began to view it as undervalued, which triggered strong buying interest. As a result, silver experienced significant volatility throughout 2025,
Several investors have been purchasing call options with strike prices of $10 000 an ounce, expiring in December 2026. In other words, they are buying financial derivatives that would pay off if gold were to reach — or exceed — that level.
“Indeed, jewellery demand has fallen quite sharply over the past two years as higher prices have dampened consumer appetite. In effect, weaker jewellery demand has helped offset the strength in investment flows. The most notable shift in the market, therefore, has been the rotation from jewellery buying towards investment demand. Regarding central banks, while they have been significant buyers, they are not the largest source of demand overall. In a global gold market of roughly 5 000 tonnes annually, central banks purchased just over 1 000 tonnes per year in 2022, 2023 and 2024, before easing slightly to around 863 tonnes in 2025. Even so, investment demand remains a substantially larger category than official sector purchases. We expect central bank demand to remain relatively strong. That said, as gold prices rise further, higher valuations could act as a constraint, potentially slowing the pace of purchases compared with recent years.”
particularly in January 2026. More recently, like gold, it appears to be
stabilising after correcting from its recent highs. Investors have been active not only in purchasing these metals but also in taking profits — especially in silver, where some holdings have been in place for decades and are now returning to the market. Overall, trading activity in both gold and silver has been very robust. Regarding the platinum group metals market, it is worth noting that platinum benefited from the launch of a new futures exchange in China, which appears to have renewed investor interest in the metal there. Like gold and silver, platinum corrected from its recent highs in 2025,” concludes Reade. These buyers are typically motivated by inflation concerns, currency and macroeconomic uncertainty, portfolio diversification and — in the case of jewellery — deep cultural traditions. n
April 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 13
SILVER OUTLOOK
Underground mining operations and material handling, where production and ore grades remain key inputs into supply expectations.
Silver’s Rise and Fall: Volatility Versus Sovereignty By David Barrett, Chief Executive Officer at EBC Financial Group (UK)
Not all that glitters is gold. In 2026, silver became the market’s stress test for how quickly a “strategic materials” narrative can turn into a leverage unwind.
S ilver hit an all-time high of about $121.6/oz on 29 January 2026, then gave up more than a quarter of its value the next day as technical selling and stop-loss triggers snowballed. Silver functions as both an industrial metal and an investment asset but does not fit neatly into either category. Its price is influenced simultaneously by manufacturing demand, investment flows, and policy developments. As discussions about supply chains and “critical minerals” become more prominent, these factors have gained increased significance. This report examines how mineral sovereignty, defined as states seeking to secure strategic resources and reduce reliance on competitors, is influencing the pricing of silver (XAGUSD) in 2026.
Project Vault: The US makes stockpiling a policy signal again On 2 February 2026, President Trump announced “Project Vault”, a plan to build a strategic stockpile of critical minerals, backed by $10 billion in financing from the US Export-Import Bank and $2 billion from the private sector. The stated goal was to reduce the risk of supply shocks for US manufacturers and to counter what Washington sees as Chinese influence over pricing in key minerals used across electric vehicles, defence, and high-tech manufacturing. Project Vault is not specifically focused on silver, but its significance for XAGUSD lies in signalling that the United States is prepared to use raw materials security as a policy instrument.
David Barrett, Chief Executive Officer at EBC Financial Group (UK).
14 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | April 2026
A miner holds a silver-bearing ore sample at an open-pit operation.
A demand story that cuts both ways Silver’s role in the real economy is broad. It is used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles, and solar panels, and it is also held for investment.
Such government actions typically result in markets assigning a greater policy premium to metals closely linked to industrial supply chains. China’s silver licensing list: control without calling it a ban Before that on 30 December 2025, China named the 44 companies allowed to
This dual-use characteristic supports the credibility of the sovereignty narrative but also contributes to market instability. When prices increase sharply, segments of demand adjust accordingly.
export silver for 2026–2027. The Ministry of Commerce framed these metals as critical to supporting domestic industries. This decision influenced
Silver functions as both an industrial metal and an
A clean example is Pandora. On 5 February 2026, Reuters reported Pandora would shift some products away from sterling silver towards platinum-plated alternatives, explicitly to reduce exposure to extreme silver price swings. Pandora said it aims to reduce
investment asset but does not fit neatly into either category. Its price is influenced simultaneously by manufacturing
the market in January, as traders often interpret any Chinese export process as a
demand, investment flows, and policy developments.
potential restriction. Additionally, misinformation regarding a routine licensing document circulated widely online. Reuters reported that some social media accounts mischaracterised the document as evidence of new export limits,
silver jewellery to 25% of its offering over time, with at least 50% of its relevant silver assortment switching to platinum-plated in 2027. Therefore, the sovereignty premium is limited. When volatility imposes significant commercial costs, some end users alter their product designs. The sixth year of deficit: tightness, even with substitution The Silver Institute expects 2026 to be the sixth consecutive year of a structural deficit, estimated at 67 million ounces, according to preliminary work by Metals Focus.
despite China processing applications and ultimately approving 44 exporters, two more than the previous year. This situation exemplifies the practical impact of sovereignty concerns. Although policy realities are often nuanced, market reactions have become increasingly binary, equating “strategic metal” with “supply risk.” In a thin and volatile market such as silver, this reflex can drive price movements more rapidly than changes in underlying physical flows.
April 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 15
SILVER OUTLOOK
sovereignty and volatility. While the market may appear tight based on data, the trajectory is complex, with shifting demand, substitution, and changes in marginal buyers. What the crash actually was The January surge was not just policy anxiety. Reuters described the move as a retail-driven frenzy, with fear of missing out visible in demand for coins and bars, and even purchase limits imposed by dealers during peak flows. Subsequently, the market correction became driven by mechanical factors. CME moved to a percentage-based margin method on 13 January 2026, then raised margins three times after that, on 30 January, 2 February, and 6 February. For COMEX 5000 silver futures, margins for non-heightened-risk accounts were raised to 18% from 15%, effective after the close on 6 February. This is significant because rising margin requirements in a declining market force less-capitalised participants to reduce risk exposure. The process is technical rather than moral. The price path reflects that stress. On 2 February, Reuters reported spot silver down around 7% near $78/oz, and down roughly 37% from the record high. On 5 February, Reuters reported silver down nearly 14–15% on the day amid a broader liquidation, as a stronger dollar and a risk-off tape hit precious metals. On 6 February, Reuters reported silver rebounded sharply to about $77.33/oz after dipping below $65 earlier in the session, but it was still headed for a weekly drop after steep losses the week before. This represents the volatility aspect of the analysis. While sovereignty-related news may initiate market movements, leverage and margin regulations determine the magnitude of price changes. Mapping the new price landscape In the current market, price levels are less about precise technical thresholds and more about the behavioural triggers they represent. The $120 area is the blow-off zone. It is where momentum, retail psychology, and positioning can quickly run away from fundamentals. The $60–$70 area is where multiple analysts have pointed to a more “fundamentally supported” range after the spike, even while the longer-run deficit narrative remains in play. These levels function as critical thresholds. At higher levels, market positioning becomes the dominant factor, while at lower levels, discussions shift toward deficit calculations.
Molten silver poured into moulds during refining and casting.
Silver used in industrial applications including solar photovoltaics and electronics, supporting structural demand beyond investment flows.
A critical nuance lies beneath this headline: Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 2% to 650 million ounces, driven by thrifting (using less) and substitution in photovoltaics. Physical investment is forecast to rise 20% to 227 million ounces, as Western retail demand recovers after several weak years. Total supply is forecast to rise 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces, with mine supply up 1% and recycling expected to exceed 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012. This dynamic illustrates the practical tension between
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16 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | April 2026
dollar strengthened and a wider equity selloff forced some investors to liquidate positions. In the coverage that followed, the explanations were more practical than philosophical. RJO Futures strategist Bob Haberkorn noted that some traders were running into margin issues and had to close out metal positions after taking losses in equities. City Index / FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada also pointed out that volatility often stays elevated after sharp moves, which can push prices lower before things settle down. This is the key near-term driver for XAGUSD: even if the longer- term strategic story is still intact, a stronger dollar and forced de-risking can take control of the price action in the short run. The bottom line: Silver as a policy-sensitive metal Factors supporting silver prices • A projected 67-million-ounce deficit in 2026, with investment demand expected to rise even as some industrial demand cools. • A policy backdrop where critical minerals stockpiling is openly back on the table in the US, and strategic materials language is now mainstream. • A market primed to treat Chinese licensing and export governance as a supply risk signal, even when the details are more routine than the rumour mill claims. Factors exerting downward pressure on silver • The same feature that powers rallies also powers crashes: leverage. Margin hikes and stop-driven selling can turn a correction into a cascade. • Visible demand adaptation when volatility becomes commercially damaging, as Pandora’s shift shows. • The “cooling” signals cited by analysts, especially in solar and jewellery demand at elevated price levels. Potential catalysts for a change in outlook • Fresh escalation in geopolitical tension, or a policy signal that materially tightens supply expectations. • On the downside, clearer evidence that substitution and thrifting are scaling up faster than investment demand can offset. Understanding silver as a geopolitical proxy On EBC Financial Group’s platform, XAGUSD represents silver priced in US dollars per ounce. In 2026, this price will reflect not only supply and demand dynamics but also heightened sensitivity to policy decisions, licensing, and supply chain politics. The market has demonstrated significant volatility when these narratives intersect with leverage. n
Stacks of silver bullion bars, reflecting investor positioning in precious metals during periods of heightened volatility.
What could shift the sovereignty narrative Two developments could significantly alter the dynamics described in this analysis. 1. A real geopolitical thaw Reuters framed one leg of the early-February sell-off as premiums coming out when US–China and US–Iran tensions eased. Even a partial de-escalation can drain the “rush to hard assets” trade. 2. Faster-than-expected demand adaptation Pandora provides the most prominent public example, while the Silver Institute also highlights substitution and thrifting in photovoltaics. If these trends accelerate, maintaining the sovereignty premium at elevated prices becomes increasingly difficult. The override factor: dollar and risk conditions still flip the tape Even with the big-picture “sovereignty” story in play, short- term price moves are still being driven by macro forces and market positioning. On 5 February, silver dropped as the US
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