Think-Realty-Magazine-July-August-2016

BYTHE NUMBERS

JOHN BURNS CONSULTING

From theAshes THE PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY IS WELL UNDERWAY.

by Ken Perlman and Sean Fergus

A

number of open communities. Despite the increase in commu- nity counts, builders continue to maintain steady absorption rates through the first quarter of 2016, with most communities selling between three and four net homes per month, accord- ing to our most recent builder survey. Phoenix single-family permit activity declined at a historic rate after the housing bubble burst in 2007, falling from a peak of nearly 61,000 units in 2006 to just 7,200 in 2010. The decline represented a nearly 90 percent drop in new home construction activity during the Great Recession. In compar- ison, national single-family permit activity (which is heavily impacted by major new home construction markets such as

fter experiencing a disappointing 2014, the Phoenix new-home market steadily improved throughout 2015— and the positive momentum has carried into this year. Buyer demand increased sharply over the past year and a half, with builders experiencing rising net sales per community. Net prices finally stabilized in mid-2015 and trended upward after some softening, marked by increasing incentives. Single-family permits have climbed steadily over the past 13 months, with positive month-over-month growth for the past 16 months. Builders increased community counts 6 percent year over year as of the first quarter of 2016. The increase is a result of both public and private builders ramping up their total

SINGLE-FAMILYPERMITS: PHOENIX, AZ

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8.000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Source :: US Census Bureau; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Pub: May-16)

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