RETAIL INDUSTRY
TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY
2025 PREDICTIONS
2025 PREDICTIONS
Uptick in Spending Will Lift Retail Inflation is already significantly cooling, and we expect an extension of tax cuts that will reach consumers across the country – or at least boost consumer confidence sufficient for them to feel comfortable spending again. We expect the first half of 2025 to see a robust economy with a stronger dollar. All of this adds up to consumers being more willing to purchase retail products after having been cautious about big purchases for the past few years. Be prepared to be flexible with your workforce as you grow to meet demand. Streamline your hiring processes to remain nimble. Focus on retention efforts now (stay bonuses, incentives, etc.). And bolster your supply chain by proactively working with suppliers on delivery schedules and stock replenishments. Retail Wages May Increase The retail worker will feel pretty good heading into the new year. It was no accident that one of President-elect Trump’s most memorable campaign moments was working at a fast-food restaurant, cementing his focus on lower-wage earners. The nomination of a pro-union Secretary of Labor further demonstrates that this won’t be a typical Republican administration favoring business at the expense of blue-collar workers. We expect federal lawmakers and agency heads (not to mention state leaders trying to keep up) to look for ways to boost retail worker wages. We’ll see minimum wage increases in states and local areas even if Congress doesn’t push for a federal raise. Retailers with tiered wage structures may face wage compression issues, as entry-level wage increases will build pressure for you to boost mid- level employee salaries to prevent pay disparities. Make sure to factor potential wage increases into your 2025 budget, and consider a privileged pay equity audit to ensure you stay on the right side of the law. Tariffs Could Cause Workplace Disruption President-elect Trump has made it clear he wasn’t joking when he said he would impose increased tariffs as part of his 2025 economic strategy. With many retailers buying goods from China, the threat of increased tariffs could cause price bumps that eventually dampen consumer demand. You may also face inventory challenges if you source alternative suppliers. If costs rise significantly, retailers might need to cut costs in other areas, potentially leading to reduced staffing, hours, or benefits later in the year. Conversely, increased complexity in supply chains might require you to bring specialized staff aboard to improve your logistics.
Increased Use of Independent Contractors Despite the selection of a union advocate for the top spot at the Department of Labor, the Trump administration will support policies to make it easier for businesses to classify workers as contractors rather than employees at the federal level. This is especially beneficial in the tech sector, where flexibility is key.
Reduced Antitrust Concerns
The new-look FTC will be less aggressive in policing tech mergers for antitrust concerns, opening the doors for free-flowing transactions between innovative companies.
Trouble for Foreign Workforces The impending immigration crackdown won’t just target unauthorized workers and criminals. The tech sector will get swept up in the coming turbulence. Under the Trump administration, visa programs like the H-1B will face increased restrictions, higher costs, and stricter eligibility requirements. You’ll need to provide support for current visa holders, such as legal assistance or career development opportunities, to shore up your workforce and improve retention. At the same time, you may need to diversify talent acquisition strategies by investing in domestic upskilling or outsourcing roles to regions with more favorable immigration policies.
AVs Will Get the OK
The federal government will create additional incentives and ease regulations for those businesses developing fully autonomous vehicles. We’ll see an increasing number of them on the road by the end of 2025.
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Unions Will Continue to Focus on Retail Speaking of pro-union leadership in the administration, union organizing will remain a persistent issue in the retail sector in 2025. The past four years have seen a major shift with labor aiming at organizing the retail sector, an industry they typically avoided. This won’t change in the new year, and will likely accelerate as workers feel even more emboldened. Make sure you coordinate with your FP counsel to develop an effective plan for responding.
Brian Balonick
Danielle H. Moore
Brett P. Owens
Pittsburgh Managing Regional Partner and Chair, Retail Industry Team bbalonick@fisherphillips.com
San Diego Partner and Co-Chair, Technology Industry Team dmoore@fisherphillips.com
Tampa Partner and Co-Chair, Technology Industry Team bowens@fisherphillips.com
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