American Consequences - November 2017

WHAT MOVED THE MARKET THE BIGGEST STORIES THAT MATTERED FOR THE MARKET LAST MONTH...

Global-manufacturing data demonstrate growth. Global-manufacturing data showed

Shinzo Abe re-elected. Japan re-elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after extending term limits in March. The Tankan survey – a comprehensive litmus test for how Japanese businesses are faring – increased more than forecast, which propelled stocks up 5.9% for October. The Federal Reserve unwinds. The long-awaited unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet went off without a hitch as $6 billion of maturing treasuries and $4 billion of mortgage-backed securities were not reinvested. U.S. economy posts growth. U.S. GDP growth came in at 3% versus an expected 2.5% rise. Economists expected hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria to have an impact, but this concern proved to be unwarranted. This also marked the first back- to-back quarters of 3% growth in three years. General Electric cuts its dividend. General Electric (GE) was fraught with speculation ahead of its earnings report on concerns the dividend would be sacrificed to save cash. When the company didn’t cut its dividend and was adamant about trying to preserve its payout, the market was optimistic... But it didn’t last. The day after earnings, Wall Street was back to taking GE out behind the proverbial woodshed. And weeks later, the company finally acquiesced.

synchronized growth, and the bulk of the large global corporations had reported by month’s end. Year-over-year earnings growth was 13%, developed markets were up 2.6%, and emerging markets tacked on 3.9% for the month. Oil rallied, inventories declined. OPEC production cuts held, the dollar was weaker versus the major currencies, and inventory results showed a drawdown in crude. Quantitative easing continues. The European Central Bank (ECB) extended its QE program for nine months and announced monthly purchases of €30 billion through September 2018. 19th CPC National Congress held. The Communist Party of China held its 19th National Congress and addressed qualitative measures to enact reforms, and maintained its 7% GDP growth target.

EDITORS

Scott Garliss

John Gillin Greg Diamond

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10 | November 2017

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