SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies and Assumptions
Population and property at risk to flooding was estimated using data from the North Carolina Emergency Management (NCEM) IRISK database, which was compiled in NCEM’s Risk Management Tool . People Earthquake events in Wake County are unlikely to produce more than mild ground shaking; therefore, injury or death is unlikely. Objects falling from shelves generally pose the greatest threat to safety. Table 4.24 and Table 4.25 detail the population estimated to be at risk from a 250-year earthquake and a 500-year earthquake, respectively, according to the NCEM IRISK database. Table 4.24 – Estimated Population Impacted by 250-Year Earthquake
Elderly Population at Risk
Total Population at Risk
All Children Population
Children at Risk
Total Population
All Elderly Population
Jurisdiction
Number Percent
Number Percent
Number Percent
Raleigh
419,053
48,654 11.60%
35,611
4,136 11.60%
30,469
3,538 11.60%
Apex
41,724
4,218 10.10%
3,546
358 10.10%
3,034 9,907 1,819 2,253 1,875 1,345 1,356
307 10.10%
Cary
136,260 25,023 30,981 25,790 18,501 18,655
12,025
8.80%
11,579
1,033
8.90%
873
8.80%
Fuquay-Varina
2,791 11.20% 4,534 14.60%
2,126 2,633 2,192 1,572 1,585
237 11.10% 385 14.60%
203 11.20% 330 14.60%
Garner
Holly Springs
2,211
8.60%
188
8.60%
161
8.60%
Knightdale Morrisville
3,307 17.90% 4,676 25.10%
281 17.90%
240 17.80% 340 25.10%
397
25%
Rolesville
5,199
834
16%
442
71 16.10%
378
61 16.10%
Wake Forest
30,382
3,726 12.30% 835 10.60% 781 12.80%
2,582
321 12.40% 71 10.60% 66 12.70%
2,209
270 12.20% 61 10.60% 57 12.80%
Wendell Zebulon
7,889 6,102
670 519
574 444
Unincorporated Wake County
135,124
22,391 16.60%
11,483
1,903 16.60%
9,825
1,628 16.60%
Total
900,683
110,983 12.32%
76,540
9,447 12.34%
65,488
8,069 12.32%
Source: NCEM Risk Management Tool
Table 4.25 – Estimated Population Impacted by 500-Year Earthquake
Elderly Population at Risk
Total Population at Risk
All Children Population
Children at Risk
Total Population
All Elderly Population
Jurisdiction
Number Percent
Number Percent
Number Percent
Raleigh
419,053 420,104 100.30%
35,611 35,714 100.30%
30,469 30,547 100.30%
Apex
41,724 41,724
100%
3,546
3,546
100% 102% 100% 100%
3,034 9,907 1,819 2,253
3,034
100%
Cary
136,260 137,544 100.90%
11,579 11,814
9,986 100.80%
Fuquay-Varina
25,023 25,023 30,981 30,981
100% 100%
2,126 2,633
2,126 2,633
1,819 2,253
100% 100%
Garner
Wake County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2019
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