SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
measurements began in 1979, with an accompanying shift of the subtropical dry zones, midlatitude jets, and both midlatitude and tropical cyclone tracks. ” It is unclear as of yet whether these changes can be attributed to climate change, but current climate science suggests cyclones would become more frequent and intense as water temperatures warm. In addition to occurring with greater frequency, intense hurricanes are also expected to produce greater amounts of rainfall. The 2017 hurricane season is considered an indicator of these potential changes.
Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies and Assumptions
Property at risk to hurricanes was estimated using data from the North Carolina Emergency Management (NCEM) IRISK database , which was compiled in NCEM’s Risk Management Tool . The vulnerability data displayed below is for wind-related damages. Hurricanes may also cause substantial damages from heavy rains and subsequent flooding, which is addressed in Section 4.5.5 Flood. People The very young, the elderly and the handicapped are especially vulnerable to harm from hurricanes. For those who are unable to evacuate for medical reasons, there should be provision to take care of special- needs patients and those in hospitals and nursing homes. Many of these patients are either oxygen- dependent, insulin-dependent, or in need of intensive medical care. There is a need to provide ongoing treatment for these vulnerable citizens, either on the coast or by air evacuation to upland hospitals. The stress from disasters such as a hurricane can result in immediate and long-term physical and emotional health problems among victims. Property Hurricanes can cause catastrophic damage to coastlines and several hundred miles inland. Hurricanes can produce winds exceeding 157 mph as well as tornadoes and microbursts. Additionally, hurricanes often bring intense rainfall that can result in flash flooding. Floods and flying debris from the excessive winds are often the deadly and most destructive results of hurricanes. Hurricanes and tropical storms can also cause agricultural damages. For Wake County, USDA RMA reports losses of $736,364 from 2007-2017 due to cyclones, which equates to an average annual loss of $66,942. Table 4.48 summarizes the crop losses due to drought in reported in the RMA system. Table 4.48 – Crop Losses Resulting from Severe Weather, 2007-2017
Year 2010 2011 2016 Total
Determined Acres
Indemnity Amount
55.11
$42,928.00 $262,951.00 $430,484.80 $736,363.80
419.90 398.59 873.60
Source: USDA Risk Management Agency
The damage estimates for the 100-year hurricane wind event total $398,511,328, which equates to a loss ratio of less than 1 percent. These damage estimates account for only wind impacts and actual damages would likely be higher due to flooding. Therefore, the Region would likely experience a higher overall loss ratio from the 100-year hurricane event and face difficulty recovering from such an event. Table 4.49 through Table 4.53 detail the estimated building damages from varying magnitudes of hurricane events.
Wake County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2019
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