SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
Morrisville
6
.92”
Raleigh
42
1.1”
Rolesville
5
1.076”
Wake Forest
6
1.21”
Wendell
4
.75”
Zebulon
4
1.03”
Unincorporated Wake County 76
1.04”
The following narratives provide detail on select hailstorms from the above list of NCEI recorded events: June 15, 1998 – Dime size hail fell in north Raleigh. This storm also produced very heavy rain and frequent lightning across much of northern Wake county from near the RDU Airport to Falls Lake and north Raleigh. July 10, 2003 – Tobacco fields were damaged by large hail. March 28, 2005 – 3.5 to 4 inch elongated hail reported at I-540 and Falls of Neuse Road. 3 inch hail reported at Strickland and Falls of Neuse Roads. 2 inch hail reported in Five Points. Golf ball sized hail reported at Cameron Village, Atlantic and New Hope Church Roads, North Raleigh Community Hospital, Green and Lee Spring Roads, and Durant and Falls of Neuse Roads. Ping pong ball sized hail reported on
Wake Forest Road. Quarter to half dollar sized hail reported on Highwoods Road. April 15, 2007 – Quarter size hail reported between Angier and Fuquay-Varina.
July 1, 2012 – A lee side surface trough interacted with a very unstable atmosphere and produced clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms became severe and produce large hail and damaging winds across all of central North Carolina. September 1, 2017 – The remnants of Harvey increased the southwesterly flow over Central North Carolina as it moved northeastward through Tennessee and Kentucky. In the wake of the northward moving warm front, a cold front moved into and stalled over Central North Carolina providing lift in the strongly sheared, moist environment. The resulting thunderstorms became severe, producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and flash flooding. Probability of Future Occurrence Based on historical occurrences recorded by NCEI for the 20-year period from 1998 through 2017, Wake County averages 16.2 thunderstormwind events per year. Over this same period, 33 lightning events were reported as having caused death, injury, or property damage, which equates to an average of 1.65 damaging lightning strikes per year. The average hail storm in Wake County occurs in late afternoon and has a hail stone with a diameter of an inch. Over the 20-year period from 1998 through 2017, Wake County experienced 207 reported hail incidents; this averages over ten reported incidents per year somewhere in the planning area, or a 100% chance that the County will experience a hail incident each year. Based on these historical occurrences, there is a 100% chance that the County will experience severe weather each year. The probability of a damaging impacts is highly likely. Probability: 4 – Highly Likely Climate Change According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), thunderstorm events in the future are likely to become more frequent in the southeast as a result of weather extremes. Thunderstorm
Wake County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2019
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