SECTION 4: RISK ASSESSMENT
Minimum lethal dose = 430 ppm for 30 min Median lethal dose (short-term exposure) = 1,000 ppm Table 4.97 outlines the expected losses based on the above parameters.
Table 4.97 – Estimated Casualties from Chlorine Attack
Injury Description
Population affected
Fatality
59 persons
Eye pain & swelling, headache, restricted airflow – difficulty breathing, coughing, chest pain, lung inflammation and edema, bloody sputum, vomiting, skin irritation, possible chemical burns Eye pain & swelling, headache, throat irritation, rapid breathing, coughing, chest pain, lung inflammation and edema, bloody sputum, vomiting, skin irritation Eye pain & swelling, headache, throat irritation, rapid breathing, coughing, chest pain, skin irritation
89 persons
203 persons
422 persons
Eye irritation, headache, throat irritation, coughing, skin irritation
516 persons
Eye irritation, headache, coughing, skin irritation
476 persons
Total impacted population
1,765 persons
“Worried Well” Cases ( assumed to be 9x affected population)
15,885 persons
Cost of Decontamination @ $12/person (assumes all persons with skin injuries will require decontamination and approximately 1/10 of the worried well will demand to be decontaminated). Total persons treated = 3,354
$40,248
Source: EMCAPS tool
Scenario #2 – IED: Truck Bomb Scenario Overview: An Improvised Explosive Device (IED) utilizing an ammonium nitrate/fuel oil (ANFO) mixture is carried in a cargo truck to a populated area and detonated. The bomb size is assumed to be 1000 lbs ANFO and the population density is 1 person per 50 square feet, equivalent to a moderately crowded pedestrian area as might be found in an average large city or outside a stadium. It is assumed that the explosion takes place in a relatively open area (e.g. stadium parking lot, park, etc). The following assumptions apply:
ANFO - TNT equivalence = 0.82
Blast pressure damage impact taken from National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 921 Guide for Fire and Explosion Investigations - 2001 Edition, Table 18.13.3.1[b] Buildings and other physical structures are not considered in these calculations Table 4.98 outlines the expected losses based on the above parameters. Table 4.98 – Estimated Casualties from IED Attack
Injury Description
Population affected
Total Dead
275 persons 483 persons 2,367 persons
Total Traumatic Injuries Total Urgent Care Injuries
Injuries not Requiring Hospitalization
886 persons
Source: EMCAPS tool
Wake County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2019
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