FROM THE INDUSTRY
What do you think the future holds for this industry? The crystal ball question! If you look at what the government is saying, they are sticking by the commitment for gigabit coverage to the whole country by 2030. Of course that is going to be a mixture DOCSIS (coax), fibre (XPON), fixed wireless and satellite. The Shared Rural Network (SRN) programme for 4G has brought better wireless connectivity for huge parts of Scotland and Wales. The traditional DOCSIS plant in the UK will remain the same size it is today, and perhaps even shrink slightly as some areas are brought on stream with newer technology. In the Netherlands they’re likely to deploy DOCSIS 4 because it really fits the network topology there, but that’s the only place where it’s likely to happen in Europe. Most of the money that’s spent on expanding the access network will be invested in fibre infrastructure. And in the UK, we’re still waiting for the consolidation of the alt nets to begin in earnest. A couple of them have merged or been bought, but we’re still waiting for some bigger deals to happen.
Is the reason for that because the value of these businesses is going down as the rollout is complete? Have they overvalued themselves? The first element that really changed the game for the alt-nets was the quick and sudden increase in lending rates. The era of cheap money ended suddenly, and the focus suddenly shifted from borrowing money to build homes as quickly as possible to, generating as much cash flow as possible. When you look at the penetration rate for most altnets - it’s actually lower than 20% - it’s taking them longer to earn a return on their investment than they would have liked. The market decides the value of an asset; it seems that most of the investors are in for the long haul.
SCTE Fellow Adam Soccorsy is an industry veteran. Serving on the SCTE executive committee from 2011 to 2015, Adam has deep roots in the industry. In 2001, Adam launched the European business unit for Phoenix Communications Technologies (PCT), successfully introducing multiple cable product lines across Europe. Later, as European Sales Director at Asheridge Communications Adam drove a decade of growth, playing a key role in the company’s private sale to Teleste Corporation in 2015. He went onto join Liberty Global in 2018 as a senior manager of procurement, managing large RFPs for cable and fibre equipment, and in 2022 he was appointed Global Sales Director, FTTx for Technetix until 2024. Adam has published numerous papers and articles, including his recent work “Fibre Network Planning Options for Rural Communities”, which he presented at the 2023 SCTE Tech EXPO in Denver.
It’s a buyer’s market.
It is certainly a buyer’s market if you have multiple service providers in the area where you live, with the best deals coming from the altnets. For the owners and investors of the altnets they are probably closely examining the covenants and commitments on their funding sources.
DECEMBER 2024 Volume 46 No.4
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