RESEARCH
How Geopolitical Events Are Shaping Dive Travel Confidence
by William Cline , Publisher & President for 35 years of Cline Group, a marketing, research and advertising consultancy specializing in the scuba diving industry.
W E STARTED 2026 WITH A BANG. Then a war in the Middle East, disrupting most diving in the region and even affecting transits to topical Asia for most of the world. Then a double whammy, US airports have seen massive disputations due to government funding. All this gave us cause to look at what’s happening with travel. I was on the phone with Caradonna’s Tim Webb recently and he said something that stuck with me about needing to be up on world events due to the thousands of their customers traveling the globe. So it gave me an idea. Over the past several weeks, we asked both dive professionals and diving consumers how global events are influencing travel behavior. The responses, while varied, point to a consistent and important conclusion. There is a shift occurring in dive travel and it’s not just affecting the Middle East. From the industry side, the impact is clear. Almost 80% of travel sellers report moderate to significant disruption in recent bookings , with over half reporting (55%) that they have seen cancellations and postponing of travel bookings in general. The effect is especially pronounced in regions tied to geopolitical tension. Travel connected to the Middle East shows extreme impact levels exceeding 80%, while Mexico, the Caribbean, and parts of Latin America reflect a more mixed but still meaningful level of disruption, generally in the moderate range. Customer behavior reflects that pressure. About 32% of operators report customers postponing trips, while approxi-
mately 26% are seeing cancellations. Another 21% report customers actively switching destinations , leaving roughly 21%, reporting no noticeable change (see chart). At the same time, nearly 70% of respondents report an increase in customer questions about travel insurance , with 42% indicating a significant increase. What was once an afterthought is now part of the core decision-making process for travel. But the most valuable insight from the industry survey is not just what is happening. It is how operators are responding. We asked an open-ended question about how they were dealing with the disruptions and here are some of the re- sponses: “We are reaching out to clients to answer questions, try- ▪ ing to save what bookings we have.” “Increased communication and information updates.” ▪ “Choosing destinations with minimal conflict and re- ▪ quiring travel insurance.” Across the board, travel sellers are spending more time guiding customers through uncertainty. Communication has become central to the process. Flexibility has become a requirement. And in many cases, travel insurance is no longer optional: “We require everyone to have full travel insurance now.” ▪ “Encouraging trip insurance and educating customers ▪ on options.” Travel sellers are also adapting their offerings. Many are redirecting travelers to alternative destinations , adjusting travel routes, and introducing more flexible booking terms: “Switching destinations.” ▪ “Seeking alternate travel routes or alternate destina- ▪ tions.” “Give credit for future bookings.” ▪ The role of the dive travel seller is evolving. This is no longer just about organizing trips. It is about managing risk, setting expectations, and helping customers make informed decisions in a more complex environment. In some cases, the adjustment has been more extreme as one respondent replied: “Quit doing dive travel.” ▪
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