The table below shows price changes for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (all items) and selected products over the 12-month period and 1-month ending in October 2023. For the 12-months ended October 2023 overall inflation declined to 3.2%, with core inflation (all items less food and energy) at 4.0%. Core inflation had its smallest 12-month change since the period ending in September 2021. The 1-month change in prices for all items was zero, with core inflation at 0.2%.
12-Month and 1-Month Percentage Change in Prices for Period Ending October, 2023 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) 12-Month Change 1-Month Change
All Items
3.2 3.3 2.1 5.4
0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4
Food
Food at Home
Food away from Home
Energy
-4.5 -5.3 4.0 2.6 1.9 -7.1
-2.5 -5.0
Gasoline
All Items Less Food and Energy
0.2 0.1
Apparel
New vehicles
-0.1 -0.8
Used cars and trucks
Services less energy services
5.5 6.7 9.2
0.3 0.3 0.8
Shelter
Transportation services
Food prices increased 3.3% for the 12-month period ending in October 2023, with food at home prices increasing 2.1% and food away from home prices increasing 5.4%. Energy prices decreased 4.5% over the 12-month period with gasoline prices declining 5.3%. New vehicle prices increased 1.9% while used vehicle prices dropped 7.1%. Shelter and Transportation Services had significant increases over the past year at 6.7% and 9.2%, respectively. The shelter index, which includes housing and rent prices, was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy in both September and October. A domestic factor that has played a significant role in increasing inflation over the past few years is the housing market. The chart below shows the housing inventory (number of listings) and the median sales price for houses since July 2016. The housing inventory is indicated by the blue line (left axis); the median sales price for houses is indicated by the red line (right axis). Despite relatively low mortgage rates and a strong demand for houses, housing prices remained relatively level from July 2016 through December 2019. Housing prices began to surge in 2020 as home inventory (active listings) plummeted. Although mortgage rates began a significant rise in early 2022 as the Federal Reserve began the upward trek for interest rates, housing prices continued to climb as home inventory remained low. Between the first quarter of 2020 through the fourth quarter of 2022, the quarterly median sales price increased approximately 46%! The percentage increase in prices over those three years nearly matched the percentage increase that occurred over the entire last decade. Between the first quarter of 2010 and the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarterly median sales price increased approximately 47%. Finally, in early 2023, home prices fell as home inventories rose and mortgage rates continued upward.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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