A Scenario-Robust, Bi-Objective Model for Integrating Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness Jomon A. Paul and XinfangWang
Coles Research Symposium on Homeland Security Special Issue, SIFALL21-01, October 2021
Overview The potential synergy between the mitigation and preparedness phases of disaster management is often overlooked; for example, falling into the cracks between FEMA’s four phases of emergency management. We develop a scenario-robust, bi- objective model to analyze the tradeoff between these two competing objectives; i.e., minimizing mitigation cost associated with the readiness of a disaster-prone region versus minimizing preparedness social cost consisting of logistics, deprivation, and fatality costs. Recognizing the inevitability of data inaccuracy in the disaster- management setting, we model the uncertain parameters within each scenario via easy-to-estimate deterministic uncertainty sets. In addition to adopting an existing medical-supply deprivation framework, we develop complementary deprivation functions to account for the human suffering caused by shortages and delayed arrival of food and water supplies based on empirical studies. Our model shows policymakers tthe intersystem benefits gained from vertical collaboration between agencies charged with the mitigation and preparedness roles that currently operate in silos, thereby engaging in suboptimal policies. Using an extensive case study of a hurricane-prone zone, we illustrate our model application wherein empirical models are utilized to estimate key parameters such as readiness of the region. In a cost-benefit framework, our results provide fresh insights into collaborative strategies policymakers can adopt to unify and improve disaster management.
30 | Coles Research Symposium
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