BYTHE NUMBERS
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR
"Prospecting is often most rewarding where nobody else is looking."
- INGOWINZER
multi-year surge in demand and prices. A final thought: As always, locations near colleges, hospitals and retail com- plexes are favored. •
IngoWinzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and growth in employ- ment and population. Winzer, who has
analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www.localmarketmonitor.com.
POPULATION (2017)
3-YEAR POPULATION GROWTH
JOB GROWTH RATE
HOME PRICE CHANGE
AVERAGE HOME PRICE (THOUSANDS)
HOME PRICE VS INCOME
PRICE/RENT RATIO
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR
248,830
1%
5.6%
8%
$201
-12%
18
Yakima, WA
285,174
9%
5.3%
11%
$288
11%
24
Greeley, CO
203,474
2%
5.2%
9%
$155
-19%
13
Elkhart-Goshen, IN
262,172
4%
5.0%
5%
291
-4%
20
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach, FL
155,602
9%
4.9%
10%
$228
-7%
16
St. George, UT
15 Markets that are Small Dynamos
205,605
3%
4.9%
5%
$181
-11%
14
Lake Charles, LA
249,156
7%
4.7%
7%
$177
4%
15
College Station-Bryan, TX
193,535
5%
3.9%
9%
$160
-13%
12
Gainesville, GA
170,955
2%
3.9%
10%
$306
-3%
26
Yuba City, CA
SMALLER MARKETS RIPE WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR AGGRESSIVE INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS.
279,116
5%
3.8%
10%
$208
0%
19
Kennewick-Richland-Pasco, WA
by Ingo Winzer
139,747
4%
3.7%
9%
$206
3%
20
Idaho Falls, ID
nvestors, especially large cor- porate ones, prefer to invest in
The 15 smaller markets we've listed have had strong job increases in the past year - from double to triple the national average - and rising home prices that signal the lack of enough housing. Will the current growth continue? Or was this a one-time surge? Investors will need to take a closer look at what exactly
is going so well in the local economy right now. But with the exception of Greeley, Yuba City, and Medford, where the high home-price/rent ratio means you need to cut single-family homes into multiple rental units (which takes time and money), a quick investment in a single-family rental will probably catch a
I
212,567
4%
3.5%
9%
$275
11%
23
Medford, OR
and around big cities. This leaves the field open for those who are willing to accept the higher economic volatility of smaller markets in exchange for the possibility of faster growth in jobs, rents, and home prices.
268,455
2%
3.5%
11%
$230
-8%
18
Merced, CA
154,998
2%
3.4%
7%
$265
-18%
18
Madera, CA
203,189
4%
3.4%
10%
$206
-7%
18
Athens-Clarke County, GA
Source :: Local Market Monitor, 2018
94 | think realty magazine :: june 2018
thinkrealty . com | 95
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