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Holding Steady: But Winter’s Coming This year’s summer price stability has been a welcome change, but it’s not unusual. We’ve seen this pattern before: a relatively calm market through spring and summer, followed by sharp increases in the run-up to winter. While the current figures may look reassuring, they don’t always tell the full story. Behind the scenes, familiar seasonal pressures are already starting to build. Gas demand rises as temperatures fall. Wind and solar output drop off just as we need more supply. Storage sites begin to draw down. And global buyers, particularly in Asia, ramp up LNG imports, competing with Europe for the same gas. Even in years with strong supply fundamentals, prices have often surged late in Q4. The market doesn’t need a crisis to move; it only needs a few key variables to shift at once. That’s why we’re watching the weeks ahead closely. So, what drives this seasonal squeeze? Here are four reasons prices tend to rise as winter rolls in:
Cold Weather Means Higher Gas Use As the temperature drops, demand for heating surges across the UK and Europe. Gas usage rises sharply, and with it, the cost of wholesale supply. Even a few weeks of sub-zero temperatures can strain reserves and cause sudden price spikes
Renewables Fall Away Winter usually brings darker days, lighter winds, and less solar output. With renewables contributing less to the grid, we rely more heavily on gas-fired generation, driving up both gas and electricity prices. This shift back to fossil fuels is one of the clearest triggers for seasonal volatility.
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