2024 OKLAHOMA CITY OUTLOOK
• Oklahoma City job growth has outpaced national job growth since 2010 with the MSA averaging 1.5% job growth per year.
• The pace of nonfarm earnings growth in the Oklahoma City MSA has been much stronger than the U.S. average with OKC MSA earnings averaging 4.6% per year against U.S. average growth of 3.9%.
• Over the long run, the Oklahoma City metro economy will continue to outperform the U.S. average as it emerges as a major U.S. metro area.
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UTI
ADMIN
FIN
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RET
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, author calculations
Major indicators point to a slowing U.S. economy in 2024. The posture of both markets and policymakers is hopeful that as economic activity slows, interest rates can fall. This golden path would allow financial conditions to loosen in the very moment that the economy is on the edge of contraction, allowing inflation to trace a path to policy’s 2% target without the economy experiencing a recession. The soft- landing scenario is certainly one possible outcome for the coming year and is the base case presented in this outlook. But much can change over the course of a year. It is unlikely that we will enjoy a surprise that impacts economic conditions in a positive way. Unfortunately, it is more likely for something to happen that is detrimental to the economy. A policy mistake, something that causes households to take on even more debt, global conflicts, and supply-side inflationary pressures, all pose risks to the forecast. It is appropriate to plan now for the possibility of a more challenging economic environment than in our baseline forecast. In the meantime, forces of economic geography will continue to respond to falling costs and move people and economic activity south and west. Economic flows will be attracted to dense, urban, amenity-rich areas where both producers and consumers can benefit from locating next to one another. These flows and the pattern of urbanization that follows will create opportunities for the state’s metro areas while challenging rural economies.
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2024 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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