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OKNF
The momentum thought to be present and carried into 2025 wasn’t reality. In contrast to 2025, Oklahoma enters 2026 with a labor market that is losing steam rather
than gaining momentum.
In contrast to 2025, Oklahoma enters 2026 with a labor market that is losing steam rather than gaining momentum. Our baseline forecast extends this struggle through the first half of 2026. Oklahoma nonfarm employment grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in 2025 with gains spread broadly across the state. Oklahoma City nonfarm payrolls grew at an annual rate of 0.9% while Tulsa payrolls grew at an annual rate of 1.2%. Recall, however, that these are effectively preliminary estimates of 2025 job growth and will be comprehensively revised in September 2026 and again in March 2027. We expect those revisions to lower initial job growth estimates in the Tulsa metro and, in turn, lower initial estimates for statewide job gains. In other words, the modest job growth reported for 2025 is likely to overstate the true strength of the state’s labor market.
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The unemployment rate across the state has and will move higher in 2026. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Lawton, and Enid all see their unemployment rate nearly a full percentage point higher than a year ago. State payrolls grow by 0.5% in 2026 with health care job gains offsetting losses in hospitality services and the trade sectors.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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