OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK – WHAT CAN WE EXPECT? The most basic measure of a state’s economy is the value of the goods and services companies in the state produce and sell. By this measure, the Oklahoma economy produced and sold just over $200 billion of goods and services in 2019. Production fell during the pandemic and despite the strong economic headlines, only regained that level of production in 2023. Many Oklahoma households felt economic strength disproportionate to the economic reality as policies supplemented incomes and drove up home prices, emboldening Oklahoma consumers. At the same time, employers scrambled to recover workers - creating a surplus of job opportunities. As some of the influence of policy excesses recede, the growth of 2023 will provide helpful momentum heading into 2024. 2024 OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR 2024 • Job growth will slow in 2024 with the economic strength concentrated in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas. OKLAHOMA PRODUCTION RECOVERY IN 2023 $203 20% $210 YoY Growth OK Real GDP Oklahoma Real GDP
$201
$200
15%
$195
• Oklahoma economic activity will start the year strong which will offset much of any weakness that materializes later in the year. • Growth will be concentrated in urban counties with many rural counties losing population.
5.9%
$190
10%
5.8%
4.8%
$180
5%
$182
0.5%
$170
0%
$160
-5%
$150
-10%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, author calculations
INDICATORS (Y/Y PERCENT CHANGE) NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (THOUS)
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023(E) 2024(F) 2025(F)
1,705 1,628
1,650 1,698
1,730 1.9% 1,374 1.9%
1,744
1,759
0.9% -4.5% 1.4% 2.9%
PERCENT CHANGE (%)
0.8% 0.9%
1,352
1,281
1,304
1,349
PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT (THOUS)
1,386 0.9%
1,401
0.8% -5.2% 1.8% 3.4% 1,840,223 1,841,349 1,860,337 1,887,040 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 1.4%
PERCENT CHANGE (%)
1.1%
LABOR FORCE
1,943,868 2,020,845 2,095,690 3.0% 4.0% 3.7% 126,152 131,949 137,920 7.3% 4.6% 4.5%
PERCENT CHANGE (%)
105,828 104,840 109,571
117,555
EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION ($MIL)
3.8% -0.9% 4.5% 7.3% 189,981 199,233 220,176 226,308 5.1% 4.9% 10.5% 2.8% 3,945,083 3,965,953 3,991,222 4,020,900 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 48,156 50,236 55,167 56,281 4.7% 4.3% 9.8% 2.0% 205,263 191,654 217,731 242,739 0.5% -6.6% 13.6% 11.5%
PERCENT CHANGE (%)
PERSONAL INCOME ($ MIL)
236,851
249,215 260,698
PERCENT CHANGE (%)
4.7% 5.2% 4.6% 4,056,189 4,092,322 4,130,503 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 58,392 60,899 63,115 3.8% 4.3% 3.6% 254,177 269,172 283,920 4.7% 5.9% 5.5%
POPULATION
PERCENT CHANGE (%)
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)
PERCENT CHANGE (%) NOM. GDP ($ MIL) PERCENT CHANGE (%)
12
2024 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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