2026 U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Oklahoma City MSA and Oklahoma economies reflect, to some degree, national economic conditions. The U.S. labor market has stalled in the second half of the year generating nearly no net new jobs and seeing the unemployment rate move higher. Second, aggregate U.S. economic activity is increasingly and uncomfortably reliant on the retail spending of high-income households reliant on wealth effects to give them confidence to spend on credit.
The labor market is expected to struggle into 2026 with generating sufficient new jobs to contain the upward trend in the unemployment rate, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to act on its dual mandate, even as inflation remains stubbornly above policy’s 2% target rate. The income, consumption, and net worth graphic reveals the reality that high-income net worth households accounted for more than half of all retail consumption. The top 20% of earners represent nearly 60% of total income and 56.5% of total consumption. The table below shares the expectations of major national forecasting organizations: the National Association for Business Economics, the Conference Board, and Goldman Sachs. 1 Readers are encouraged to find or follow any of these entities for ongoing national economic analysis.
U.S. Outlook Summary
Metric (Source)
'26 Q1(f)
'26 Q2(f)
'26 Q3(f)
'26 Q4(f)
rGDP (NABE)
1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
Unemployment Rate (CB)
4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
Fed Funds Rate (GS)
3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Inflation (NABE)
3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4%
1
National Association for Business Economics, The Conference Board, Goldman Sachs
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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