The year ahead is likely to bring moderate growth, avoid a recession, and make continued progress on inflation. But too much uncertainty remains to declare the year ahead uneventful. Caution is encouraged as household balance sheets in particular remain precariously exposed to external shock. “ - Outlook 2025
The summary for the 2026 outlook remains largely the same, though more muted with a more pronounced warning. The best-case scenario for the year ahead is moderate growth, avoid a recession, and not lose progress already made on inflation. Extreme caution is encouraged as national economic resilience continues to be reliant on high-income households and their balance sheets that remain precariously exposed to external shocks.
2026 APPENDIX TABLES
Oklahoma Macroeconomy & Labor Market Outlook, Annual
Year
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025(e) 2026(f) 2027(f) Value $193,793 $190,094 $192,539 $196,031 $200,072 $191,377 $194,991 $194,171 $207,073 $210,316 $213,648 $218,829 $222,817 Y/Y growth 3.9% -1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% -4.3% 1.9% -0.4% 6.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% $172,726 $164,709 $171,995 $180,824 $189,997 $198,234 $217,902 $233,182 $247,301 $260,910 $270,915 $278,853 $286,396 -2.8% -4.6% 4.4% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 9.9% 7.0% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 2.9% 2.7% $124,004 $126,385 $130,254 $136,008 $138,657 $138,205 $155,943 $170,231 $180,518 $189,695 $196,432 $202,489 $208,341 1.4% 1.9% 3.1% 4.4% 1.9% -0.3% 12.8% 9.2% 6.0% 5.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 3,900,900 3,916,688 3,920,316 3,928,371 3,943,727 3,965,415 3,992,238 4,026,229 4,063,882 4,095,393 4,121,550 4,142,725 4,161,233 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 2,287,838 2,287,131 2,291,944 2,312,261 2,309,379 2,265,447 2,311,367 2,380,642 2,450,387 2,474,908 2,497,325 2,510,275 2,528,219 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% -0.1% -1.9% 2.0% 3.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 1,705,945 1,689,282 1,696,327 1,720,358 1,741,587 1,666,612 1,683,523 1,740,701 1,785,141 1,807,062 1,827,064 1,835,019 1,846,064 0.4% -1.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.2% -4.3% 1.0% 3.4% 2.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 581,893 597,849 595,617 591,903 567,792 598,835 627,844 639,941 665,246 667,846 670,261 675,256 682,155 1.4% 2.7% -0.4% -0.6% -4.1% 5.5% 4.8% 1.9% 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% $45,112 $44,817 $46,104 $47,762 $49,067 $50,650 $52,685 $55,111 $57,632 $59,965 $62,043 $63,952 $65,827 1.5% -0.7% 2.9% 3.6% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.9% 1,745,090 1,734,041 1,747,790 1,768,822 1,779,707 1,722,603 1,784,726 1,837,576 1,894,600 1,920,156 1,939,871 1,953,073 1,969,909 1.9% -0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% -3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1,823,310 1,818,341 1,821,114 1,828,707 1,837,388 1,838,309 1,859,248 1,895,258 1,956,969 1,985,625 2,007,623 2,035,855 2,055,914 1.9% -0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.9% 3.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 3.1% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 4.1% 4.2% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 61.7% 61.2% 61.1% 61.2% 61.2% 60.7% 60.9% 61.4% 62.6% 62.8% 62.8% 62.5% 62.3% - - - - - - - - - - - - -
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT*
PERSONAL INCOME**
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION**
POPULATION
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
WAGES & SALARY EMPLOYMENT
PROPRIETOR'S EMPLOYMENT
AVERAGE WAGE AND SALARY
HH EMPLOYMENT
HH LABOR FORCE
HH UN RATE
HH LABOR FORCE PART. RATE
*$Mil, 2017, **$Mil
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Author Calculations
2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 13
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