THE 2025 FORECAST: NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES FROM RECOGNIZED INDUSTRY VOICES We provide a summary outlook from three respected entities and add our commentary to their analysis. These are the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the Conference Board (CB), and Goldman Sachs (GS). Readers are encouraged to find or follow any of these entities for ongoing national economic analysis. See appendix for full outlook table.
The year ahead looks a lot like the year behind – expect moderate growth but be prepared for challenges that might arise. Lower-income households have spent through savings and are relying on expensive credit to support consumption. Their debt levels are manageable, but just barely. Consumption spending in 2025 for these households will have to come from labor income. Fortunately, the labor market in Oklahoma is relatively strong which gives Oklahoma households a reasonably strong footing as they head into next year. Higher-income households are increasingly reliant on the stock market to generate wealth and support ongoing consumption. Stock valuations are high (as noted in the adjacent quote) and could be susceptible to large declines. Should this happen we expect to see a quick change in behavior from these households.
U.S. Outlook Summary
Metric (Source)
2024
2025
National forecasters generally expect moderate growth in 2025. Goldman Sachs expects 2.4% growth and places the odds of a recession at 1 in 5. A survey of executives (the Conference Board) expects slower growth and the odds of a recession
RGDP (GS)
2.5% 2.4% 4.2% 4.3% 2.4% 2.0% 4.3% 3.3%
Unemployment Rate (NABE)
Inflation (CB)
Fed Funds Rate (CB)
at 1 in 2. We expect 2025 to unfold somewhere in the middle. We doubt the ability of the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates throughout the year as inflation lingers. We expect inflation to linger closer to 3% for much of early 2025 giving the Federal Reserve little room for rate cuts until we get deeper into 2025. The labor market is also reasonably healthy. Most states continue to have more job openings than unemployed persons, which should allow the unemployment rate to hold below 4.5% for much of the year even if growth comes in a little below expectations. Expect the unemployment rate to be closer to 4.5% than 4% as 2025 comes to a close.
2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 15
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