2024 FORECAST OF INDICATORS
U.S. economic growth will slow in 2024 to under 2%
The headline unemployment rate will rise as job searches take longer
6.0%
4.4%
4.3%
4.9%
4.2%
4.3%
2.7% 2.6% 2.2%
1.5% 1.7%
3.0%
4.2%
4.0%
2.1%
3.8%
3.8%
1.5%
0.0%
-0.6%
3.7%
3.6%
-2.0%
-3.0%
3.4%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.5% Federal Reserve holds policy in place until middle of year when modest rate cuts begin
A slowing economy and falling housing prices will help move inflation towards policy's 2% target
5.4%
5.3%
6.0%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
5.5%
4.9%
4.0%
3.4%
3.5%
3.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
2.3%
3.0%
2.2%
2.9%
4.4%
4.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
4.0%
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Conference Board
Historical
Bloomberg
NABE
2023 LABOR MARKET IN REVIEW The pace of new job creation slowed to 200,000 new jobs per month in 2023
Excess job listings fell throughout the year making it a little harder to find a job in 2024 making it a little harder to find a job in 2023
6.0%
13,000
5
-150 -50 50 150 250 350 450
Openings per Unemployed Person Job Openings
Unemployment Rate NF Job Creation
5.5%
472
4
11,000
5.0%
216
3
8,790
4.5%
9,000
2
105
4.0%
1.4
3.7%
7,000
1
3.4%
3.5%
5,000
0
3.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2024 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 15
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