THE OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW AND EXPAND 2026 OKLAHOMA CITY MSA OUTLOOK Over the last 40 years, Oklahoma has been the 10th fastest urbanizing state in the nation, much to the benefit of the Oklahoma City MSA. Even with this pace of urbanization, Oklahoma remains only the 34th most urbanized state, leaving room for continued urbanization and concentration of population and economic activity in the Oklahoma City MSA. The MSA accounts for more than 37% of the state population and will approach and surpass 40% of state real GDP by the end of 2027. In contrast, the Tulsa MSA share of population and real GDP are holding constant near 26%.
Given the increasing share of the state’s population and economic activity in the OKC MSA, it makes sense to open the outlook with a review of local conditions. Indeed, it is increasingly the case that what happens in the OKC MSA drives Oklahoma’s economic reality. The year behind was defined by a significant downward revision in initial reports of 2024 employment growth. The initial momentum reported in 2024 proved illusory, challenging the growth forecast for 2025. It’s a credit to the resilience of OKC MSA businesses for sustaining even modest growth against challenging national conditions. But there is no illusion heading into 2026. Employment growth has stalled and national statistics regularly send mixed messages on the state of the nation’s economy. High income and high net worth households continue to spend while lower income households struggle to keep up with inflation. The OKC MSA will add some jobs in 2026, but long run fundamentals will persist with modest gains in population and personal income reinforcing the MSA’s role in anchoring the state economy.
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2026 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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