OKLAHOMA CITY OUTLOOK – URBANIZATION DRIVES GROWTH IN 2024 Oklahoma City benefits from the forces of economic geography driving urbanization in the south and west. Oklahoma City further benefits from its proximity to Dallas along the fast-growing I-35 mega region. The challenge for Oklahoma City will not be access to opportunities for economic growth. Instead, the challenge will be to recognize the fragile nature of past success and the constant need to invest in its urban amenity complex to remain an attractive destination for mobile households and firms. Nominal measures, like personal income, will post strong growth in 2024, but the growth will be a little deceptive due to lingering inflation. Strong gains will reflect a combination of forces including sustained inflation pressures, in-migration, and new economic activity. 2024 OKLAHOMA CITY OUTLOOK KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR 2024 • Oklahoma City MSA or metro job growth will OKLAHOMA CITY MSA JOB GROWTH 2024-2025
Oklahoma City metro payroll employment grows solidly in 2024 at 2%
close 2023 at a robust 2.4%; the pace of job gains is expected to slow in 2024 to 2%. • Self-employment (proprietor’s employment) is rising in the Oklahoma City metro as the economy becomes more entrepreneurial. • Oklahoma City MSA population growth picked up steam at the turn of the decade and will remain strong at 1.2% growth in 2024. • Per capita income in the metro will grow at 4.7% in 2024 to more than $66,000.
760
6.0%
Percent Change Nonfarm Employment
5.0%
720
4.0%
680
3.0%
2.0%
640
1.0%
600
0.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, author calculations
INDICATORS (Y/Y PERCENT CHANGE)
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023 (E) 2024 (F) 2025 (F)
886,099 871,085 898,822 943,288 0.3% -1.7% 3.2% 4.9%
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
972,422 998,383 1,019,279
% CHANGE
3.1% 686
2.7%
2.1%
661
632
645
669
NONFARM EMP (THOUS)
700
711
1.8% -4.4% 2.1% 3.7%
% CHANGE
2.4% 2.0%
1.6% 579
531
504
518
543
PRIVATE EMP (THOUS)
557
568
1.9% -5.1% 2.9% 4.7% 674,481 644,965 659,661 687,773 1.7% -4.4% 2.3% 4.3% 52,693 53,147 57,132 62,204 8.6% 0.9% 7.5% 8.9% 1,413,004 1,429,854 1,443,587 1,459,380 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1%
% CHANGE
2.6% 2.0% 2.0%
WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT
696,862 711,881 1.3% 2.2%
721,536
% CHANGE
1.4%
EARNINGS ($ THOUS)
65,880 68,930 71,113 5.9% 4.6% 3.2% 1,476,773 1,494,149 1,512,189
% CHANGE
POPULATION
% CHANGE
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
72,114 76,701
85,256 88,565
PERSONAL INCOME ($ MIL)
93,586 99,092 104,116
8.1% 6.4% 11.2% 3.9% 51,036 53,642 59,059 60,687 6.9% 5.1% 10.1% 2.8%
% CHANGE
5.7% 5.9%
5.1%
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)
63,372 66,320 68,851 4.4% 4.7% 3.8%
% CHANGE
8
2024 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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