There are other unknowns as well. Natural disasters from annual hurricane and wildfire seasons and civil unrest from racial tensions could easily result in flareups of the virus due to forced close quarters for large groups of people. When they return to their own homes and daily life, they can spread the disease as quickly as returning ski vacationers and business travelers did in this first round. If our assumptions regarding the length of the pandemic or the numbers of cases and deaths are off by more than 20 percent in either direction, our economic forecasts could be materially affected. On a local level, if the per capita infection rate and death rate of your reservation, counties or state vary by more than 30 percent from the national averages, your own experience would likely be correspondingly more or less severe. In order to monitor actual conditions locally and nationally, areas to watch include: National daily and cumulative infection totals and deaths State/county daily and cumulative infection totals and deaths Daily infection totals and deaths in areas that reduce restrictions earlier, beginning three to four weeks after the change and for eight weeks thereafter (too soon to tell) Monitoring of daily infection totals and deaths in China and in Western Europe for the remainder of this year (so far so good) Monitoring of public statements, reports, orders and guidance issued by your state and local authorities, of the majority public reaction to them and of the majority public reaction to similar guidance or orders by other governmental leaders in counties and states where leadership is affiliated with the same party as that in your area Monitoring of significant outbreak clusters at major businesses in your local area or at comparable businesses in other areas (e.g. meatpacking plants, nursing homes, etc.) Careful monitoring as much as possible of your own employees and customers. Where monitoring of the factors listed above shows evidence of new surges in infection or of increased public pressure to tighten or weaken restrictions, it will be reasonable to anticipate and plan for similar shifts in your own area. The same is true in the opposite direction. If China, Europe and parts of the country with fewer restrictions do not see new surges in infections, there is reason to hope that the same will be true for your location as well. If any outbreak at an important local business is identified and mitigated quickly with fewer infections, there is reason to anticipate the impact will pass more quickly. In general, if unusual or unexpected trends are observed, we would encourage patience and further observation of any better than expected trends prior to action, but quick action to deal with any worse than expected trends due to the relative cost-benefit of needed mitigation.
∴ MONITORING FUTURE HEALTH
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