The comparison of COVID-19 to annual flu outbreaks, although seriously flawed and misleading as it was originally applied, is useful in understanding one possible version of the assumed outcome. There is a degree of ongoing risk of illness and even of significant deaths that can be factored into daily economic life without disrupting the normal equilibrium if the nature of the risk is well understood. That happens every year with influenza and with other health risks. That type of outcome, while far less desirable than actual eradication or control through immunity, is an alternative that would still satisfy the assumption underpinning our economic forecasts. Assuming that the pandemic has been stabilized by Spring of next year, civic response in the form of governmental and/or corporate restrictions, along with changes in personal work, shopping and recreational behavior are assumed to remain in place to varying degrees through the Summer of 2021. After that time, we assume that any remaining restrictions or changes will either be of a more permanent nature or will be in the process of easing to a new steady state rather than a crisis mode. The level and character of restrictions will vary significantly across both time and geography between now and then. Despite widely reported differences in the level of restrictions imposed so far, the degree of response has been more consistent than recognized. As mentioned earlier, even states and countries that did not invoke stay-at-home orders still enacted significant restrictions on a more targeted basis and made recommendations that, while lacking the force of law, accomplished a similar result. Despite protests and more flagrant flouting of restrictions and recommendations, the vast majority of people have not only substantially obeyed them, they have agreed with and supported them. Between now and next summer, we anticipate periodic recalibration of restrictions and recommendations with an initial direction toward reductions in severity and limitations in their application by geography, demographic characteristics and disease exposure. Despite obvious differences in philosophy between different political groups and geographies, we anticipate a general coalescing of approaches and parameters across the country as more practical evidence becomes available to leaders regarding the effects of pursuing alternative strategies. While some variation will continue throughout the course of the crisis, we anticipate fairly consistent methods will evolve that are more targeted in scope to particular age groups, health conditions, individual counties and individual industries. The lack of information and risk of cross contamination that prevents such consistency at present should reduce over time with increases in understanding of transmission, improvements in treatment protocols, experience with various mitigation efforts to reduce interpersonal contact and other data points to guide decision making.
∴ PROGNOSIS
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