LITHIUM OUTLOOK
Lithium – the rise of Zimbabwe By Tom Price Managing Director, Research Analyst, Resources at Panmure Liberum
The long-standing dominance of Chile and Australia – as the collective source of global lithium supply, used mainly in rechargeable batteries, including those of electric vehicles (EVs) – is being challenged by Zimbabwe. In just five years, Zimbabwe has grown its domestic lithium production rate from zero to 240ktpa, now almost 20% of global lithium supply.
Lithium supply is used mainly in rechargeable batteries, including those of electric vehicles.
Key producers & projects Key local lithium operations include 90ktpa Bikita (bought 2022, China-owned Sinomine); 50ktpa Arcadia (Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt); 25ktpa Sabi Star Mine (Chengxin Lithium); 10ktpa Zvishavane (Zheli Lithium). Key projects include >30ktpa Sandawana (state-owned Kuvimba Mining House; possibly from 2027) and >12ktpa Zulu lithium-tantalum (Premier African Minerals). Resource nationalism Note, most lithium assets of Zimbabwe are Chinese-owned. Only the artisanal miners manage the country’s modest residual lithium-producing capability. For almost a decade, China’s various entities have been developing Zimbabwe’s lithium resources, to send the output home for refinement and use, mainly in its ballooning rechargeable batteries industry. To mitigate this loss of control over local mineral resources, the government of Zimbabwe banned the export of lithium ore in 2022. In January this year, the government decided to tighten lithium exports further, with a ban on lithium concentrate exports (carbonate, hydroxide, etc.) too. The objective of this ban is probably the same as Indonesia’s 2009 Mining Law, another country dealing with China’s relentless development of local mineral resources.
Restricting the export of unprocessed minerals effectively forces foreign players to invest in local processing and upgrading capacity – if they wish to continue receiving supply. This investment, in turn, allows the local economy to capture more of the commodity’s ‘value-in-use’ – the future cash flows arising from its production and trade. More generally, investment in the local industrial base creates local employment, boosts the local capital flow, etc. The policy has been spectacularly successful in developing Indonesia’s mining industry over the last 10-15 years – which has made it the world’s producer and exporter of thermal coal and nickel. Zimbabwe’s government is determined to achieve a similar outcome, starting with its China-dominated lithium mining industry. Price action, explained What price is paid, for Zimbabwe’s lithium exports? Over three-quarters of the global 1.3Mtpa lithium market is based on contract pricing (6-12 month-basis). These, in turn, are based on daily-reported prices, established by a China-centred spot trade. And over the last couple of quarters, spot prices of lithium’s key products – carbonate/hydroxide – doubled within 4Q25 to above US$20k/t, to trade in a US$20-25k/t-range year-to-date. Spot terms are a reasonable guide to the prices received for Zimbabwe’s lithium exports.
8 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | JUNE 2026
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